Game Simulations

<< 2/21 February 22, 2025 2/23 >>

Last Updated: 12:03 PM

Projections come from simulating each game thousands of times. Read more about this process on our methodology page.

Miami Marlins
3.54
6:20
@
Philadelphia Phillies
4.69
Washington Nationals
3.59
6:50
@
Tampa Bay Rays
3.84
Texas Rangers
5.31
7:05
@
Baltimore Orioles
4.50
New York Yankees
4.96
7:07
@
Toronto Blue Jays
4.10
Colorado Rockies
4.84
7:10
@
Chicago White Sox
4.49
San Diego Padres
4.27
7:10
@
Boston Red Sox
5.49
Houston Astros
3.48
7:10
@
New York Mets
3.83
Pittsburgh Pirates
4.48
7:20
@
Atlanta Braves
4.96
Cleveland Guardians
5.34
8:10
@
Kansas City Royals
5.05
Chicago Cubs
4.61
8:10
@
Milwaukee Brewers
4.63
Cincinnati Reds
4.39
8:15
@
St. Louis Cardinals
4.49
Detroit Tigers
5.46
9:38
@
Los Angeles Angels
4.27
Minnesota Twins
3.56
9:40
@
Seattle Mariners
4.07
Oakland Athletics
3.99
9:40
@
Arizona Diamondbacks
4.83
Los Angeles Dodgers
3.83
10:15
@
San Francisco Giants
3.76
6:20

Miami Marlins
@
Philadelphia Phillies

Kyle Tyler   
Starter

3.54  
Runs
  4.69

(+182) 35.5%  
Win
  64.5% (-182)

+190 (BetRivers)   
ML
   -220 (FanDuel)

1.95  
F5 Runs
  2.85

(+209) 32.4%  
F5 Lead
  53.7% (-116)

Total Runs (Implied Over)
5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5
-269 -177 -110 +131 +207 +279 +435 +590
Under 7.5, 110 (ESPN BET) 
Total
 Over 7.5, -130 (ESPN BET)

YRFI: 49.1% (+104)

Citizens Bank Park | Runs: +2%

Lineups Final: Yes
6:50

Washington Nationals
@
Tampa Bay Rays

Mitchell Parker   
Starter
    Zach Eflin

3.59  
Runs
  3.84

(+119) 45.7%  
Win
  54.3% (-119)

+162 (Caesars)   
ML
   -174 (FanDuel)

1.88  
F5 Runs
  2.26

(+174) 36.5%  
F5 Lead
  45.6% (+119)

Total Runs (Implied Over)
5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5
-199 -138 +127 +179 +286 +415 +669 +920
Under 7.5, -108 (DraftKings) 
Total
 Over 7.5, -105 (BetMGM)

YRFI: 47.1% (+112)

Tropicana Field | Runs: -7%

Lineups Final: Yes
7:05

Texas Rangers
@
Baltimore Orioles

Max Scherzer   
Starter
    Albert Suarez

5.31  
Runs
  4.50

(-120) 54.5%  
Win
  45.5% (+120)

+105 (ESPN BET)   
ML
   -114 (BetRivers)

3.01  
F5 Runs
  2.42

(-101) 50.2%  
F5 Lead
  35.2% (+184)

Total Runs (Implied Over)
5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5
-459 -318 -192 -136 +114 +151 +212 +289
Under 8.5, -110 (BetRivers) 
Total
 Over 8.5, 105 (Caesars)

YRFI: 53.6% (-116)

Oriole Park at Camden Yards | Runs: +8%

Lineups Final: Yes
7:07

New York Yankees
@
Toronto Blue Jays

Marcus Stroman   
Starter
    Yusei Kikuchi

4.96  
Runs
  4.10

(-123) 55.2%  
Win
  44.8% (+123)

-105 (Caesars)   
ML
   -103 (BetRivers)

2.75  
F5 Runs
  2.22

(+105) 48.8%  
F5 Lead
  36.8% (+172)

Total Runs (Implied Over)
5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5
-363 -252 -149 -108 +146 +202 +305 +410
Under 8.5, -113 (BetRivers) 
Total
 Over 8.5, 100 (Caesars)

YRFI: 48.6% (+106)

Rogers Centre | Runs: +1%

Lineups Final: Yes
7:10

Colorado Rockies
@
Chicago White Sox

Dakota Hudson   
Starter
    Drew Thorpe

4.84  
Runs
  4.49

(-105) 51.3%  
Win
  48.7% (+105)

+125 (ESPN BET)   
ML
   -127 (BetRivers)

2.68  
F5 Runs
  2.50

(+120) 45.4%  
F5 Lead
  40.2% (+149)

Total Runs (Implied Over)
5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5
-408 -275 -158 -116 +136 +181 +268 +344
Under 8.5, 102 (BetRivers) 
Total
 Over 8.5, -115 (DraftKings)

YRFI: 50.7% (-103)

Guaranteed Rate Field | Runs: +7%

Lineups Final: Yes
7:10

San Diego Padres
@
Boston Red Sox

Randy Vasquez   
Starter
    Nick Pivetta

4.27  
Runs
  5.49

(+187) 34.8%  
Win
  65.2% (-187)

+136 (DraftKings)   
ML
   -150 (BetMGM)

2.26  
F5 Runs
  3.60

(+264) 27.5%  
F5 Lead
  60.5% (-153)

Total Runs (Implied Over)
5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5
-495 -337 -203 -143 +110 +149 +231 +315
Under 9.5, -115 (Caesars) 
Total
 Over 9.5, 100 (BetMGM)

YRFI: 54.3% (-119)

Fenway Park | Runs: +7%

Lineups Final: Yes
7:10

Houston Astros
@
New York Mets

Ronel Blanco   
Starter
    Jose Quintana

3.48  
Runs
  3.83

(+126) 44.3%  
Win
  55.7% (-126)

-104 (FanDuel)   
ML
   -107 (BetRivers)

1.88  
F5 Runs
  2.20

(+167) 37.5%  
F5 Lead
  44.6% (+124)

Total Runs (Implied Over)
5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5
-178 -122 +130 +184 +312 +432 +706 +1024
Under 8.5, -118 (FanDuel) 
Total
 Over 8.5, 100 (ESPN BET)

YRFI: 45.7% (+119)

Citi Field | Runs: -14%

Lineups Final: Yes
7:20

Pittsburgh Pirates
@
Atlanta Braves

Martin Perez   
Starter
    Charlie Morton

4.48  
Runs
  4.96

(+135) 42.6%  
Win
  57.4% (-135)

+196 (Caesars)   
ML
   -200 (BetMGM)

2.47  
F5 Runs
  3.06

(+187) 34.9%  
F5 Lead
  50.3% (-101)

Total Runs (Implied Over)
5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5
-410 -275 -167 -120 +127 +167 +247 +331
Under 8.5, 115 (ESPN BET) 
Total
 Over 8.5, -135 (ESPN BET)

YRFI: 50.5% (-102)

Truist Park | Runs: -1%

Lineups Final: Yes
8:10

Cleveland Guardians
@
Kansas City Royals

Triston McKenzie   
Starter
    Alec Marsh

5.34  
Runs
  5.05

(+101) 49.7%  
Win
  50.3% (-101)

-105 (Caesars)   
ML
   -105 (BetMGM)

2.93  
F5 Runs
  2.91

(+124) 44.6%  
F5 Lead
  42.4% (+136)

Total Runs (Implied Over)
5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5
-599 -395 -237 -170 -110 +124 +178 +238
Under 9.5, -105 (BetMGM) 
Total
 Over 9.5, -105 (ESPN BET)

YRFI: 54.3% (-119)

Kauffman Stadium | Runs: +12%

Lineups Final: Yes
8:10

Chicago Cubs
@
Milwaukee Brewers

Jameson Taillon   
Starter
    Colin Rea

4.61  
Runs
  4.63

(+112) 47.1%  
Win
  52.9% (-112)

+116 (BetRivers)   
ML
   -125 (Caesars)

2.64  
F5 Runs
  2.76

(+143) 41.1%  
F5 Lead
  44.7% (+124)

Total Runs (Implied Over)
5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5
-410 -276 -166 -118 +130 +178 +280 +385
Under 8.5, -105 (ESPN BET) 
Total
 Over 8.5, -110 (FanDuel)

YRFI: 52.7% (-111)

American Family Field | Runs: -4%

Lineups Final: Yes
8:15

Cincinnati Reds
@
St. Louis Cardinals

Frankie Montas   
Starter
    Andre Pallante

4.39  
Runs
  4.49

(+109) 47.8%  
Win
  52.2% (-109)

+110 (ESPN BET)   
ML
   -126 (FanDuel)

2.59  
F5 Runs
  2.79

(+148) 40.4%  
F5 Lead
  44.8% (+123)

Total Runs (Implied Over)
5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5
-357 -246 -149 -107 +149 +208 +322 +438
Under 8.5, 100 (BetRivers) 
Total
 Over 8.5, -115 (BetMGM)

YRFI: 52.3% (-110)

Busch Stadium | Runs: +0%

Lineups Final: Yes
9:38

Detroit Tigers
@
Los Angeles Angels

Kenta Maeda   
Starter
    Zach Plesac

5.46  
Runs
  4.27

(-146) 59.3%  
Win
  40.7% (+146)

-120 (BetMGM)   
ML
   +107 (BetRivers)

3.36  
F5 Runs
  2.53

(-117) 53.9%  
F5 Lead
  33.3% (+200)

Total Runs (Implied Over)
5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5
-481 -315 -193 -139 +115 +153 +223 +310
Under 9.5, -118 (BetRivers) 
Total
 Over 9.5, 100 (FanDuel)

YRFI: 52.9% (-112)

Angel Stadium | Runs: +1%

Lineups Final: Yes
9:40

Minnesota Twins
@
Seattle Mariners

Bailey Ober   
Starter
    Logan Gilbert

3.56  
Runs
  4.07

(+137) 42.2%  
Win
  57.8% (-137)

+112 (BetRivers)   
ML
   -125 (BetMGM)

1.82  
F5 Runs
  2.38

(+200) 33.3%  
F5 Lead
  48.6% (+106)

Total Runs (Implied Over)
5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5
-198 -134 +118 +165 +247 +341 +554 +762
Under 7.5, -140 (ESPN BET) 
Total
 Over 7.5, 120 (ESPN BET)

YRFI: 43.9% (+128)

T-Mobile Park | Runs: -8%

Lineups Final: Yes
9:40

Oakland Athletics
@
Arizona Diamondbacks

JP Sears   
Starter
    Slade Cecconi

3.99  
Runs
  4.83

(+155) 39.2%  
Win
  60.8% (-155)

+163 (BetRivers)   
ML
   -174 (FanDuel)

2.08  
F5 Runs
  2.85

(+211) 32.2%  
F5 Lead
  53.0% (-113)

Total Runs (Implied Over)
5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5
-315 -213 -130 +104 +161 +221 +331 +435
Under 9.5, -130 (ESPN BET) 
Total
 Over 9.5, 110 (ESPN BET)

YRFI: 51.4% (-106)

Chase Field | Runs: +3%

Lineups Final: Yes
10:15

Los Angeles Dodgers
@
San Francisco Giants

Landon Knack   
Starter
    Logan Webb

3.83  
Runs
  3.76

(+106) 48.6%  
Win
  51.4% (-106)

+115 (Caesars)   
ML
   -124 (BetRivers)

2.03  
F5 Runs
  2.19

(+152) 39.7%  
F5 Lead
  42.8% (+134)

Total Runs (Implied Over)
5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5
-192 -135 +124 +170 +258 +372 +554 +777
Under 7.5, -114 (BetRivers) 
Total
 Over 7.5, 100 (Caesars)

YRFI: 46.3% (+116)

Oracle Park | Runs: -8%

Lineups Final: Yes