Positive EV

<< 3/26 March 27, 2025 3/28 >>

Last Updated: 3:55 AM

Positive expected value occurs when there is a favorable gap (EV) between the odds offered by a sportsbook and the market consensus (CS). This tool shows current odds that deviate favorably from the consensus.

Ballpark Pal sim results are conducted independently from the books, providing an additional, unbiased source of information. We use a bottom-up approach to assign odds and do not cluster toward a consensus. This results in an independent, sometimes divergent opinion on an event's likelihood.

Show column descriptions

Raw Odds
 Odds: The current odds offered by the sportsbook (with vig)
 CS: The market consensus (average of the raw odds)
 Δ: The probability delta between the outlier book and the market consensus (with vig)
 BP: Ballpark Pal odds
 Δ: The probability delta between the outlier book and the Ballpark Pal odds

Expected Value
 Odds: The current odds offered by the sportsbook (without vig)
 CS: The market consensus (average of the no-vig odds)
 EV: The Expected Value of the bet
 QK: The Kelly Criterion for bet size (Quarter Kelly)
 Win: The market consensus probability (without vig)

Raw %
 CS: The market consensus - average of the implied probabilities (with vig)
 Δ: The probability delta between the outlier book and the market consensus (with vig)
 BP: Ballpark Pal odds
 Δ: The probability delta between the outlier book and the Ballpark Pal odds

No Vig %
 CS: The market consensus - average of the implied probabilities (without vig)
 Δ: The probability delta between the outlier book and the market consensus (without vig)
 BP: Ballpark Pal odds
 Δ: The probability delta between the outlier book and the Ballpark Pal odds

Matchup
 Opp: The opposing team
 Vs: The Matchup Machine rating vs the opposing starter
 Pitcher: The opposing pitcher