Last Updated: 04:17 PM
The Matchup Model gives a probability distribution of outcomes for every batter/pitcher combination. Matchups for the day are shown below.
% Change vs Typical: Shows the percent change vs the batter's typical expectations. If a player is normally expected to hit a HR 2% of the time, a value of '50' indicates a 3% chance to hit a HR vs the starting pitcher in today's park (50% increase). RC (runs created) is a combination of the outcomes and is meant to serve as an indicator of overall matchup quality for the hitter.
Model (Probabilities): The probabilities for each outcome according to the matchup model. A HR value of '3.7' indicates a 3.7% chance of hitting a HR vs the starting pitcher in today's park.
History (Actuals): The actual outcomes recorded in the past 3 years for the hitter/pitcher combination.
History (Model): A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.