matchup for Seth Lugo
matchup for J. Holliday
4
Jackson Holliday has a 29.1% chance of reaching base vs Seth Lugo, which is 0.6% higher than Holliday's typical expectations, and 3.4% lower than batters facing Lugo.
| Reach | Hit | HR | 2B / 3B | 1B | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | 29.1% | 20.6% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 13.2% | 8.5% | 30.3% |
| Holliday | +0.6 | +1.5 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +1.1 | -0.8 | -1.0 |
| Lugo | -3.4 | -3.3 | -0.7 | +0.0 | -2.6 | -0.1 | +5.4 |
Jackson Holliday is slightly better vs right-handed pitching. Seth Lugo is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Holliday doesn't have many appearances against this particular release point.
Seth Lugo throws a 4-seam fastball 29% of the time. Jackson Holliday has a D grade against right-handed 4-seamers
Pitch Type
% of Arsenal
4-Seam (R)
29%
Curve (R)
28%
Sinker (R)
17%
Slider (R)
13%
Changeup (R)
6%
10% of Seth Lugo's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Jackson Holliday hasn't faced this type of pitch very often.
Pitch Label
% vs MLB
Weak Challenge
10%
+2%
Mid Challenge
12%
+1%
Edge Painter
18%
+1%
Strong Challenge
6%
+1%
Fringe Miss
13%
+0%
Chaser
6%
0%
Non-Competitive
12%
-1%
Meatball
5%
-1%
Likely Ball
18%
-1%
25% of Seth Lugo's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 20% higher than the MLB average. Jackson Holliday hasn't faced this type of pitch enough to assign a grade.
Physical Trait
% vs MLB
Extreme Drop
25%
+20%
Large Break
18%
+13%
Extreme Slow Velo
16%
+11%
Breaking (R)
41%
+10%
26.0% of Jackson Holliday's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 9.3% higher than the league average. Seth Lugo strikes out 16.6% of the batters he faces, which is 0.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Strikeout
+9.3%
+0.9%
6%
Walk
-0.6%
-2.3%
53%
In Play
-8.8%
+1.4%
39%
On Base
-5.3%
-0.3%
31%
Hit
-4.8%
+2.0%
14%
Single
-2.8%
+0.8%
13%
2B / 3B
-2.4%
+1.2%
3%
Home Run
+0.4%
+0.0%
40.6% of Jackson Holliday's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.2% higher than the league average. Seth Lugo induces Standard Grounders at a 35.7% rate, which is 1.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.
0%
Squib/Bunt
+1.6%
+1.3%
34%
Standard Grounder
+6.2%
+1.3%
7%
Hard Grounder
+9.3%
-1.7%
14%
Low Screamer
-8.9%
+0.7%
9%
Rising Liner
-5.8%
-1.2%
4%
Maybe Homer
+2.7%
-0.3%
3%
Likely Homer
-2.4%
+2.3%
1%
No Doubter
+2.9%
-0.5%
20%
Routine Flyout
-2.3%
+0.1%
3%
Pop up
-3.4%
-1.9%
31.3% of Jackson Holliday's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 7.0% higher than the league average. 22.9% of batted balls allowed by Seth Lugo are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Below 75 mph
+3.7%
+1.8%
21%
75 to 86 mph
-7.9%
+0.2%
18%
87 to 93 mph
-4.5%
-1.5%
19%
94 to 99 mph
+1.6%
+0.9%
24%
Above 100 mph
+7.0%
-1.4%
12.4% of Jackson Holliday's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.0% higher than the league average. 14.7% of batted balls allowed by Seth Lugo are hit at this angle, which is 3.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.
17%
Below -10°
+11.3%
+2.1%
12%
-10 to 0°
+3.8%
-0.6%
8%
1 to 6°
+2.6%
+1.2%
18%
7 to 18°
-9.5%
-2.2%
15%
19 to 28°
-0.8%
-1.5%
11%
29 to 38°
+1.0%
+3.2%
7%
39 to 50°
-1.7%
+0.6%
8%
Above 50°
-6.8%
-2.7%
Jackson Holliday has 2 plate appearances against Seth Lugo in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 2.
| PA | AB | H | HR | 2/3B | 1B | K | BB | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Expected From Contact → | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.44 | 0.227 | ||||
| Expected From Contact | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Outcome | HR | 2/3B | 1B | Out |
| 2024-04-21 | Lineout | 1% | 37% | 62% | |
| 2024-04-21 | Groundout | 7% | 93% | ||
Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.
