Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Jackson Chourio

matchup for Carlos Rodon

285th out of 436 (Worst 35%)

Carlos Rodon

matchup for Jackson Chourio

512th out of 567 (Worst 10%)

Moderate advantage for Rodon

Jackson Chourio has a 28.9% chance of reaching base vs Carlos Rodon, which is 3.5% lower than Chourio's typical expectations, and 0.5% lower than batters facing Rodon.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	28.9%	22.3%	3.4%	4.9%	14.0%	6.6%	32.5%
Chourio	-3.5	-2.5	+0.4	-0.8	-2.1	-1.0	+11.4
Rodon	-0.5	+1.3	+0.4	+0.2	+0.7	-1.9	-3.1

Jackson Chourio is a bit worse vs left-handed pitching. Carlos Rodon is left handed with a horizontal release toward the first base side. Chourio has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Carlos Rodon throws a 4-seam fastball 56% of the time. Jackson Chourio has an A grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

56%

Slider (L)

28%

Changeup (L)

Curve (L)

14% of Carlos Rodon's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Jackson Chourio has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 14%

+3%

Strong Challenge 8%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Edge Painter 17%

Weak Challenge 7%

-2%

Non-Competitive 10%

-2%

Meatball 2%

-3%

41% of Carlos Rodon's pitches are classified as Medium Break Toward Third Base, which is 22% higher than the MLB average. Jackson Chourio has a C+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Break 41%

+22%

High Ride 32%

+22%

Very Fast Velo 19%

+16%

12.8% of Jackson Chourio's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 3.0% lower than the league average. Carlos Rodon strikes out 19.6% of the batters he faces, which is 5.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -3.0% +5.4% 5%

Walk -1.9% +0.2% 38%

In Play +4.8% -5.6% 39%

On Base +3.1% -2.6% 31%

Hit +4.9% -2.8% 14%

Single +1.9% -1.6% 13%

2B / 3B +2.3% -1.7% 3%

Home Run +0.7% +0.5%

40.8% of Jackson Chourio's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.4% higher than the league average. Carlos Rodon induces Standard Grounders at a 29.9% rate, which is 4.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +1.2% +0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder +6.4% -4.6% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.8% +0.4% 14%

Low Screamer -3.2% +1.9% 9%

Rising Liner +0.1% -0.5% 4%

Maybe Homer -1.3% -1.1% 3%

Likely Homer +0.3% +0.3% 1%

No Doubter +0.1% +0.8% 20%

Routine Flyout -2.9% +2.0% 3%

Pop up -1.5% +0.4%

32.5% of Jackson Chourio's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 8.2% higher than the league average. 25.5% of batted balls allowed by Carlos Rodon are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +1.3% -3.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -3.1% +1.5% 18%

87 to 93 mph -2.7% -0.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph -3.7% +1.5% 24%

Above 100 mph +8.2% +1.2%

9.5% of Jackson Chourio's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.9% lower than the league average. 10.9% of batted balls allowed by Carlos Rodon are hit at this angle, which is 0.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +7.4% -3.0% 12%

-10 to 0° +4.9% -0.7% 8%

1 to 6° -2.8% +0.4% 18%

7 to 18° -1.2% -0.8% 15%

19 to 28° -3.4% +0.2% 11%

29 to 38° -1.9% -0.5% 7%

39 to 50° -0.9% +3.1% 8%

Above 50° -2.1% +1.3%

Jackson Chourio has 5 plate appearances against Carlos Rodon in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 5 with 4 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	5	5	0	0	0	0	4	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00			0.000

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2025-03-27	Strikeout
2025-03-27	Strikeout
2025-03-27	Strikeout
2024-04-27	Strikeout
2024-04-27	Flyout				100%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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