Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Colt Keith

matchup for Michael Wacha

152nd out of 436 (Best 36%)

Michael Wacha

matchup for Colt Keith

220th out of 567 (Best 40%)

Leans in favor of Keith

Colt Keith has a 30.7% chance of reaching base vs Michael Wacha, which is 0.5% higher than Keith's typical expectations, and 0.5% higher than batters facing Wacha.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.7%	24.1%	2.3%	4.8%	17.0%	6.6%	22.4%
Keith	+0.5	+1.9	+0.3	+0.0	+1.6	-1.4	-3.4
Wacha	-0.5	+1.0	-0.5	-0.3	+1.7	-1.4	+1.0

Colt Keith is much better vs right-handed pitching. Michael Wacha is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Keith has a D+ grade vs this particular release point.

Michael Wacha throws a Changeup 32% of the time. Colt Keith has an A+ grade against right-handed Changeups

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Changeup (R)

32%

4-Seam (R)

31%

Cutter (R)

17%

Sinker (R)

11%

Curve (R)

8% of Michael Wacha's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Colt Keith hasn't faced this type of pitch very often.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 8%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+0%

Weak Challenge 8%

Strong Challenge 5%

-1%

Likely Ball 18%

-2%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

32% of Michael Wacha's pitches are classified as Offspeed Pitches, which is 20% higher than the MLB average. Colt Keith has an A grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Offspeed (R) 32%

+20%

Medium Break 30%

+11%

High Ride 19%

+9%

13.4% of Colt Keith's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.1% lower than the league average. Michael Wacha strikes out 16.3% of the batters he faces, which is 0.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.1% +0.4% 4%

Walk -0.2% -2.0% 39%

In Play +2.2% +1.5% 39%

On Base +5.5% -3.0% 31%

Hit +5.7% -1.0% 14%

Single +3.0% -0.6% 13%

2B / 3B +3.1% -0.5% 3%

Home Run -0.4% +0.1%

36.9% of Colt Keith's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 2.4% higher than the league average. Michael Wacha induces Standard Grounders at a 33.6% rate, which is 0.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.6% -0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder +2.4% -0.8% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.7% +0.5% 14%

Low Screamer +2.3% +1.5% 9%

Rising Liner -0.4% +0.7% 4%

Maybe Homer -1.9% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer -0.3% -0.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.4% 0.0% 20%

Routine Flyout -1.3% -1.8% 3%

Pop up -0.3% +0.6%

17.4% of Colt Keith's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 6.9% lower than the league average. 26.9% of batted balls allowed by Michael Wacha are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +3.8% +0.0% 21%

75 to 86 mph -0.6% +0.4% 18%

87 to 93 mph +2.8% -0.3% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.9% -2.7% 24%

Above 100 mph -6.9% +2.6%

11.7% of Colt Keith's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.3% higher than the league average. 10.7% of batted balls allowed by Michael Wacha are hit at this angle, which is 0.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° 0.0% -2.9% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.2% +1.7% 8%

1 to 6° +2.4% -0.8% 18%

7 to 18° +1.0% +2.8% 15%

19 to 28° -0.8% +0.9% 11%

29 to 38° +0.3% -0.7% 7%

39 to 50° -0.9% -1.6% 8%

Above 50° +0.2% +0.6%

Colt Keith has 9 plate appearances against Michael Wacha in the last 3 years. He is 4 for 9 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	9	9	4	0	1	3	1	0	0.444
Expected From Contact →			2.39	0.00	0.18	2.21			0.266

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-04	Flyout				99%
2024-08-04	Single		3%	45%	53%
2024-08-04	Flyout				99%
2024-05-20	Single		5%	70%	24%
2024-05-20	Double		6%	3%	91%
2024-05-20	Single		1%	64%	35%
2024-04-28	Flyout		3%	38%	60%
2024-04-28	Strikeout
2024-04-28	Flyout				99%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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