Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Brenton Doyle

matchup for Aaron Nola

389th out of 436 (Worst 11%)

Aaron Nola

matchup for Brenton Doyle

277th out of 567 (Best 50%)

Strong advantage for Doyle

Brenton Doyle has a 31.4% chance of reaching base vs Aaron Nola, which is 0.8% lower than Doyle's typical expectations, and 2.0% higher than batters facing Nola.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.4%	25.1%	4.1%	7.6%	13.5%	6.3%	29.7%
Doyle	-0.8	+1.0	+0.9	+1.7	-1.5	-1.8	+6.3
Nola	+2.0	+2.8	+1.1	+1.3	+0.3	-0.8	-1.2

Brenton Doyle is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Aaron Nola is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Doyle has a B- grade vs this particular release point.

Aaron Nola throws a Kn-Curve 30% of the time. Brenton Doyle hasn't faced this pitch from right handers very often

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Kn-Curve (R)

30%

4-Seam (R)

30%

Sinker (R)

20%

Changeup (R)

12%

Cutter (R)

8% of Aaron Nola's pitches are classified as Chasers, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Brenton Doyle has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Chaser 8%

+2%

Edge Painter 19%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

+0%

Weak Challenge 8%

Likely Ball 19%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

26% of Aaron Nola's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 21% higher than the MLB average. Brenton Doyle hasn't faced this type of pitch enough to assign a grade.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 26%

+21%

Extreme Slow Velo 23%

+18%

Large Break 22%

+18%

14.7% of Brenton Doyle's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.2% higher than the league average. Aaron Nola strikes out 20.3% of the batters he faces, which is 6.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout +0.2% +6.3% 5%

Walk -0.9% -2.8% 39%

In Play +0.8% -3.5% 39%

On Base -0.2% -4.8% 31%

Hit +0.8% -2.0% 14%

Single -0.4% -0.8% 13%

2B / 3B +0.0% -0.7% 3%

Home Run +1.2% -0.5%

36.2% of Brenton Doyle's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.8% higher than the league average. Aaron Nola induces Standard Grounders at a 37.3% rate, which is 2.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +1.3% 0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder +1.8% +2.9% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.5% -0.6% 14%

Low Screamer -4.2% -1.6% 9%

Rising Liner -1.0% +0.5% 4%

Maybe Homer -1.0% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer +0.9% +0.1% 1%

No Doubter +0.9% +0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.9% -0.4% 3%

Pop up +0.8% -0.7%

25.9% of Brenton Doyle's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.6% higher than the league average. 23.6% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Nola are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +4.7% +0.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.4% -0.2% 18%

87 to 93 mph -2.6% +2.2% 19%

94 to 99 mph -1.3% -1.9% 24%

Above 100 mph +1.6% -0.7%

11.6% of Brenton Doyle's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.1% higher than the league average. 10.9% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Nola are hit at this angle, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +3.5% -0.8% 12%

-10 to 0° -1.1% +1.8% 8%

1 to 6° -2.5% +0.2% 18%

7 to 18° -0.4% +0.8% 15%

19 to 28° -2.2% +0.1% 11%

29 to 38° +0.1% -0.6% 7%

39 to 50° +1.5% -0.2% 8%

Above 50° +1.0% -1.3%

Brenton Doyle has 8 plate appearances against Aaron Nola in the last 3 years. He is 3 for 7 with a home run, a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	8	7	3	1	0	2	1	1	0.429
Expected From Contact →			2.24	1.23	0.07	0.94			0.320

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-05-25	Flyout				99%
2024-05-25	Single			45%	55%
2024-04-15	Strikeout
2024-04-15	Walk
2024-04-15	Single			48%	52%
2023-05-14	Field Error
2023-05-14	Home Run	99%
2023-05-14	Flyout	24%	5%		70%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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