Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Sal Frelick

matchup for JP Sears

162nd out of 436 (Best 38%)

JP Sears

matchup for Sal Frelick

347th out of 567 (Worst 39%)

Leans in favor of Frelick

Sal Frelick has a 28.8% chance of reaching base vs JP Sears, which is 2.8% lower than Frelick's typical expectations, and 0.9% lower than batters facing Sears.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	28.8%	23.2%	1.7%	5.6%	15.9%	5.7%	8.9%
Frelick	-2.8	-1.3	+0.3	+0.7	-2.2	-1.5	-4.4
Sears	-0.9	+0.6	-1.8	-0.4	+2.8	-1.5	-9.5

Sal Frelick is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. JP Sears is left handed with an over-the-top delivery. Frelick doesn't have many appearances against this particular release point.

JP Sears throws a 4-seam fastball 43% of the time. Sal Frelick hasn't faced this pitch from left handers very often.

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

43%

Slider (L)

33%

Changeup (L)

17%

Sinker (L)

14% of JP Sears's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Sal Frelick has a B- grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 14%

+2%

Meatball 7%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Likely Ball 19%

-1%

Non-Competitive 10%

-2%

Weak Challenge 6%

-2%

40% of JP Sears's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 18% higher than the MLB average. Sal Frelick has a D grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Large Break 40%

+18%

Medium Fast Velo 28%

+13%

Small Drop 23%

+10%

8.5% of Sal Frelick's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 10.3% lower than the league average. JP Sears strikes out 14.1% of the batters he faces, which is 2.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

18%

Strikeout -10.3% -2.6% 5%

Walk -1.3% -1.1% 35%

In Play +11.5% +3.7% 39%

On Base +7.4% -2.6% 31%

Hit +8.6% -1.5% 14%

Single +5.3% -1.6% 13%

2B / 3B +5.7% -1.1% 3%

Home Run -2.4% +1.2%

43.1% of Sal Frelick's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 8.7% higher than the league average. JP Sears induces Standard Grounders at a 25.3% rate, which is 9.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.5% -0.4% 34%

Standard Grounder +8.7% -9.1% 7%

Hard Grounder -4.5% +0.8% 14%

Low Screamer +6.8% -1.1% 9%

Rising Liner -3.5% -0.3% 4%

Maybe Homer -3.0% +3.0% 3%

Likely Homer -2.3% -0.7% 1%

No Doubter -1.2% +2.0% 20%

Routine Flyout -4.9% +2.1% 3%

Pop up +3.3% +3.7%

10.7% of Sal Frelick's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 13.6% lower than the league average. 26.9% of batted balls allowed by JP Sears are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +8.3% +2.1% 21%

75 to 86 mph +6.8% -7.2% 18%

87 to 93 mph +4.7% +2.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph -6.2% -0.1% 24%

Above 100 mph -13.6% +2.6%

9.9% of Sal Frelick's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.6% lower than the league average. 15.8% of batted balls allowed by JP Sears are hit at this angle, which is 4.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +5.0% -4.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.4% -1.6% 8%

1 to 6° +0.2% -1.3% 18%

7 to 18° -5.6% -3.0% 15%

19 to 28° +0.4% +0.5% 11%

29 to 38° -1.6% +4.3% 7%

39 to 50° -0.1% +0.4% 8%

Above 50° +2.0% +5.0%

Sal Frelick has 2 plate appearances against JP Sears in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 2 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
Expected From Contact →			0.85	0.00	0.03	0.82			0.425

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-23	Double		3%	82%	15%
2024-08-23	Pop Out				100%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine Log InSubscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe