Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Sal Frelick

matchup for Griffin Canning

169th out of 436 (Best 40%)

Griffin Canning

matchup for Sal Frelick

320th out of 567 (Worst 44%)

Moderate advantage for Frelick

Sal Frelick has a 31.1% chance of reaching base vs Griffin Canning, which is 0.5% lower than Frelick's typical expectations, and 2.0% lower than batters facing Canning.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.1%	23.5%	1.4%	4.8%	17.3%	7.6%	11.4%
Frelick	-0.5	-0.9	0.0	-0.1	-0.8	+0.4	-1.9
Canning	-2.0	+1.8	-1.4	-0.1	+3.3	-3.8	-10.1

Sal Frelick is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Griffin Canning is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Frelick has a C- grade vs this particular release point.

Griffin Canning throws a 4-seam fastball 39% of the time. Sal Frelick has a C grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

39%

Slider (R)

27%

Changeup (R)

21%

Curve (R)

11%

14% of Griffin Canning's pitches are classified as Non-Competitive, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Sal Frelick has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Non-Competitive 14%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Meatball 7%

+0%

Weak Challenge 8%

+0%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Mid Challenge 11%

Chaser 6%

Strong Challenge 5%

-1%

Edge Painter 17%

-1%

38% of Griffin Canning's pitches are classified as Medium Slow Velocity, which is 24% higher than the MLB average. Sal Frelick has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Slow Velo 38%

+24%

Offspeed (R) 21%

+9%

Medium Break 28%

+9%

8.5% of Sal Frelick's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 10.3% lower than the league average. Griffin Canning strikes out 14.3% of the batters he faces, which is 1.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

18%

Strikeout -10.3% -1.9% 5%

Walk -1.3% +0.3% 35%

In Play +11.5% +1.6% 39%

On Base +7.4% -0.8% 31%

Hit +8.6% -1.1% 14%

Single +5.3% -0.9% 13%

2B / 3B +5.7% -0.7% 3%

Home Run -2.4% +0.6%

43.1% of Sal Frelick's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 8.7% higher than the league average. Griffin Canning induces Standard Grounders at a 31.2% rate, which is 3.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.5% -0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder +8.7% -3.2% 7%

Hard Grounder -4.5% +1.2% 14%

Low Screamer +6.8% +0.6% 9%

Rising Liner -3.5% -0.2% 4%

Maybe Homer -3.0% -0.8% 3%

Likely Homer -2.3% +0.6% 1%

No Doubter -1.2% +0.6% 20%

Routine Flyout -4.9% +2.3% 3%

Pop up +3.3% -0.7%

10.7% of Sal Frelick's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 13.6% lower than the league average. 25.9% of batted balls allowed by Griffin Canning are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +8.3% +0.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph +6.8% -2.3% 18%

87 to 93 mph +4.7% -0.8% 19%

94 to 99 mph -6.2% +1.2% 24%

Above 100 mph -13.6% +1.6%

9.9% of Sal Frelick's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.6% lower than the league average. 12.5% of batted balls allowed by Griffin Canning are hit at this angle, which is 1.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +5.0% -1.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.4% -1.0% 8%

1 to 6° +0.2% 0.0% 18%

7 to 18° -5.6% -1.6% 15%

19 to 28° +0.4% -2.5% 11%

29 to 38° -1.6% +1.1% 7%

39 to 50° -0.1% +0.8% 8%

Above 50° +2.0% +4.4%

Sal Frelick has 2 plate appearances against Griffin Canning in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 2 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	1.000
Expected From Contact →			0.59	0.00	0.02	0.57			0.296

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-06-18	Double			3%	96%
2024-06-18	Single		1%	54%	45%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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