Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Sal Frelick

matchup for Luis Severino

306th out of 436 (Worst 30%)

Luis Severino

matchup for Sal Frelick

413th out of 567 (Worst 27%)

Leans in favor of Frelick

Sal Frelick has a 30.5% chance of reaching base vs Luis Severino, which is 1.2% lower than Frelick's typical expectations, and 0.4% higher than batters facing Severino.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.5%	24.3%	1.2%	4.1%	19.0%	6.2%	12.1%
Frelick	-1.2	-0.2	-0.3	-0.8	+0.9	-1.0	-1.2
Severino	+0.4	+3.0	-1.3	+0.0	+4.2	-2.6	-11.2

Sal Frelick is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Luis Severino is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Frelick has a C grade vs this particular release point.

Luis Severino throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Sal Frelick has a C grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

44%

Slider (R)

27%

Changeup (R)

14%

Sinker (R)

Cutter (R)

14% of Luis Severino's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Sal Frelick has a B- grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 14%

+3%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Weak Challenge 8%

Likely Ball 19%

-1%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

Meatball 3%

-3%

27% of Luis Severino's pitches are classified as Very Fast Velocity, which is 19% higher than the MLB average. Sal Frelick has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Very Fast Velo 27%

+19%

Medium Break 36%

+16%

Medium Ride 24%

+10%

8.5% of Sal Frelick's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 10.3% lower than the league average. Luis Severino strikes out 16.2% of the batters he faces, which is 0.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

18%

Strikeout -10.3% +0.9% 5%

Walk -1.3% -1.1% 35%

In Play +11.5% +0.2% 39%

On Base +7.4% -0.9% 31%

Hit +8.6% +0.2% 14%

Single +5.3% +0.2% 13%

2B / 3B +5.7% +0.4% 3%

Home Run -2.4% -0.5%

43.1% of Sal Frelick's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 8.7% higher than the league average. Luis Severino induces Standard Grounders at a 35.9% rate, which is 1.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.5% +0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder +8.7% +1.5% 7%

Hard Grounder -4.5% -0.2% 14%

Low Screamer +6.8% +3.2% 9%

Rising Liner -3.5% -0.3% 4%

Maybe Homer -3.0% -0.4% 3%

Likely Homer -2.3% -1.3% 1%

No Doubter -1.2% -0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout -4.9% -1.4% 3%

Pop up +3.3% -0.7%

10.7% of Sal Frelick's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 13.6% lower than the league average. 23.8% of batted balls allowed by Luis Severino are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +8.3% +2.0% 21%

75 to 86 mph +6.8% +0.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph +4.7% -3.8% 19%

94 to 99 mph -6.2% +1.5% 24%

Above 100 mph -13.6% -0.5%

9.9% of Sal Frelick's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.6% lower than the league average. 10.1% of batted balls allowed by Luis Severino are hit at this angle, which is 1.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +5.0% +1.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.4% +0.3% 8%

1 to 6° +0.2% -0.3% 18%

7 to 18° -5.6% +1.5% 15%

19 to 28° +0.4% -0.5% 11%

29 to 38° -1.6% -1.3% 7%

39 to 50° -0.1% -0.7% 8%

Above 50° +2.0% -0.2%

Sal Frelick has 8 plate appearances against Luis Severino in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 8 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	8	8	2	0	1	1	2	0	0.250
Expected From Contact →			1.98	0.00	0.44	1.53			0.247

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-10-01	Groundout			2%	97%
2024-10-01	Groundout			5%	95%
2024-10-01	Double		13%	80%	7%
2024-03-30	Single		5%	43%	52%
2024-03-30	Strikeout
2024-03-30	Lineout		26%	8%	66%
2023-09-08	Groundout			15%	85%
2023-09-08	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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