Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Michael Busch

matchup for Zac Gallen

185th out of 436 (Best 43%)

Zac Gallen

matchup for Michael Busch

373rd out of 567 (Worst 34%)

Leans in favor of Gallen

Michael Busch has a 33.2% chance of reaching base vs Zac Gallen, which is 1.7% higher than Busch's typical expectations, and 0.6% higher than batters facing Gallen.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	33.2%	16.0%	2.6%	4.1%	9.3%	17.2%	37.1%
Busch	+1.7	-2.6	-0.2	-0.6	-1.7	+4.3	+8.3
Gallen	+0.6	-3.9	-0.2	-0.3	-3.4	+4.5	+5.6

Michael Busch is better vs right-handed pitching. Zac Gallen is right handed with an extreme release toward the third base side. Busch has a D grade vs this particular release point.

Zac Gallen throws a 4-seam fastball 49% of the time. Michael Busch has a D+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

49%

Kn-Curve (R)

23%

Changeup (R)

14%

Cutter (R)

10%

22% of Zac Gallen's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Michael Busch has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 22%

+2%

Chaser 8%

+2%

Fringe Miss 14%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Strong Challenge 5%

+0%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Weak Challenge 7%

-1%

Meatball 4%

-2%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

25% of Zac Gallen's pitches are classified as Small Break Toward Third Base, which is 16% higher than the MLB average. Michael Busch has a C- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Small Break 25%

+16%

Extreme Drop 19%

+14%

Medium Fast Velo 24%

+8%

This chart shows location tendencies (vertical on the left, horizontal on the right). The blue bars indicate where Zac Gallen throws MORE OFTEN than the league average while purple bars indicate areas he throws LESS OFTEN. Grades represent how well Michael Busch has performed against pitches thrown in each area.

-1%

-2%

-3%

+0%

+1%

+4%

+2%

-3%

-1%

+0%

+3%

+0%

-2%

16.7% of Michael Busch's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 3.5% higher than the league average. Zac Gallen strikes out 17.9% of the batters he faces, which is 3.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +3.5% +3.5% 3%

Walk +3.0% -0.3% 42%

In Play -6.5% -3.2% 39%

On Base -3.5% -2.0% 31%

Hit -6.6% -1.7% 14%

Single -3.4% -1.0% 13%

2B / 3B -4.0% -0.6% 3%

Home Run +0.9% -0.1%

37.4% of Michael Busch's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.0% higher than the league average. Zac Gallen induces Standard Grounders at a 32.8% rate, which is 1.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% +0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder +3.0% -1.6% 7%

Hard Grounder -1.9% +2.2% 14%

Low Screamer -6.3% +1.2% 9%

Rising Liner -1.0% -1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.4% +0.4% 3%

Likely Homer -1.5% -1.0% 1%

No Doubter +3.8% -0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout +3.3% +1.3% 3%

Pop up +1.4% -1.5%

20.6% of Michael Busch's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.7% lower than the league average. 26.5% of batted balls allowed by Zac Gallen are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -0.3% -1.2% 21%

75 to 86 mph +0.8% -2.5% 18%

87 to 93 mph -1.6% +0.4% 19%

94 to 99 mph +4.8% +1.1% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.7% +2.2%

15.5% of Michael Busch's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 4.1% higher than the league average. 10.7% of batted balls allowed by Zac Gallen are hit at this angle, which is 0.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.3% -0.2% 12%

-10 to 0° +3.7% +0.5% 8%

1 to 6° -4.4% -0.3% 18%

7 to 18° -0.9% +1.0% 15%

19 to 28° -4.2% +0.4% 11%

29 to 38° +4.1% -0.8% 7%

39 to 50° +0.7% +1.0% 8%

Above 50° +2.1% -1.6%

Michael Busch has 8 plate appearances against Zac Gallen in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 6 with a double and 2 walks

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	8	6	2	0	1	1	1	2	0.333
Expected From Contact →			1.27	0.25	0.63	0.39			0.212

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2025-03-27	Strikeout
2025-03-27	Walk
2024-07-20	Double	25%	43%	4%	28%
2024-07-20	Flyout				100%
2024-07-20	Groundout		14%	4%	82%
2023-08-28	Single			27%	73%
2023-08-28	Groundout		6%	5%	89%
2023-08-28	Walk

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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