matchup for Caleb Thielbar
matchup for Michael Busch
2
Michael Busch has a 32.8% chance of reaching base vs Caleb Thielbar, which is 0.4% higher than Busch's typical expectations, and 1.0% higher than batters facing Thielbar.
| Reach | Hit | HR | 2B / 3B | 1B | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | 32.8% | 19.1% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 11.3% | 13.7% | 30.0% |
| Busch | +0.4 | -0.8 | +0.0 | 0.0 | -0.8 | +1.3 | +3.5 |
| Thielbar | +1.0 | -2.6 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -2.1 | +3.6 | +2.0 |
Michael Busch is worse vs left-handed pitching. Caleb Thielbar is left handed with an over-the-top delivery. Busch has a D+ grade vs this particular release point.
Caleb Thielbar throws a 4-seam fastball 49% of the time. Michael Busch hasn't faced this pitch from left handers very often.
Pitch Type
% of Arsenal
4-Seam (L)
49%
Slider (L)
29%
Curve (L)
22%
16% of Caleb Thielbar's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 5% higher than the MLB average. Michael Busch has a C grade against this type of pitch.
Pitch Label
% vs MLB
Mid Challenge
16%
+5%
Strong Challenge
9%
+4%
Likely Ball
20%
+1%
Fringe Miss
13%
+0%
Edge Painter
17%
0%
Chaser
5%
-1%
Meatball
3%
-2%
Weak Challenge
6%
-3%
Non-Competitive
8%
-4%
50% of Caleb Thielbar's pitches are classified as Breaking Pitches, which is 21% higher than the MLB average. Michael Busch hasn't faced this type of pitch enough to assign a grade.
Physical Trait
% vs MLB
Breaking (L)
50%
+21%
Small Break
29%
+21%
Slow Lob
22%
+18%
Extreme Drop
22%
+17%
This chart shows location tendencies (vertical on the left, horizontal on the right). The blue bars indicate where Caleb Thielbar throws MORE OFTEN than the league average while purple bars indicate areas he throws LESS OFTEN. Grades represent how well Michael Busch has performed against pitches thrown in each area.
+2%
+0%
+1%
+3%
0%
-3%
-2%
-1%
+1%
-3%
-1%
-1%
0%
+4%
+3%
+1%
-1%
-1%
16.1% of Michael Busch's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.5% higher than the league average. Caleb Thielbar strikes out 18.8% of the batters he faces, which is 5.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.
13%
Strikeout
+2.5%
+5.2%
3%
Walk
+3.1%
+1.9%
42%
In Play
-5.5%
-7.1%
39%
On Base
-1.7%
-6.1%
31%
Hit
-4.8%
-8.0%
14%
Single
-3.0%
-4.3%
13%
2B / 3B
-2.8%
-3.9%
3%
Home Run
+1.0%
+0.3%
37.3% of Michael Busch's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 2.9% higher than the league average. Caleb Thielbar induces Standard Grounders at a 31.8% rate, which is 2.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.
0%
Squib/Bunt
-0.3%
-0.1%
34%
Standard Grounder
+2.9%
-2.6%
7%
Hard Grounder
-1.2%
-3.2%
14%
Low Screamer
-6.0%
-0.6%
9%
Rising Liner
-0.6%
-1.5%
4%
Maybe Homer
-0.3%
-0.7%
3%
Likely Homer
-1.8%
+0.9%
1%
No Doubter
+3.6%
+0.3%
20%
Routine Flyout
+3.1%
+2.4%
3%
Pop up
+0.6%
+4.9%
21.0% of Michael Busch's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.3% lower than the league average. 23.1% of batted balls allowed by Caleb Thielbar are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Below 75 mph
-0.3%
+2.4%
21%
75 to 86 mph
+0.7%
+1.4%
18%
87 to 93 mph
-1.9%
+2.0%
19%
94 to 99 mph
+4.7%
-4.6%
24%
Above 100 mph
-3.3%
-1.2%
15.6% of Michael Busch's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 4.1% higher than the league average. 10.6% of batted balls allowed by Caleb Thielbar are hit at this angle, which is 0.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.
17%
Below -10°
-1.4%
-1.1%
12%
-10 to 0°
+3.4%
-4.7%
8%
1 to 6°
-3.8%
-1.7%
18%
7 to 18°
+0.2%
+2.3%
15%
19 to 28°
-4.5%
-2.4%
11%
29 to 38°
+4.1%
-0.8%
7%
39 to 50°
+0.4%
+1.4%
8%
Above 50°
+1.6%
+7.0%
Michael Busch has 1 plate appearance against Caleb Thielbar in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 1 with a strikeout.
| PA | AB | H | HR | 2/3B | 1B | K | BB | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Expected From Contact → | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000 | ||||
| Expected From Contact | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Outcome | HR | 2/3B | 1B | Out |
| 2024-08-05 | Strikeout | ||||
Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.
