Matchup Machine

Gunnar Henderson

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matchup for Jose Berrios

424th out of 436 (Worst 3%)

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Jose Berrios

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matchup for G. Henderson

124th out of 567 (Best 23%)

Extreme advantage for Henderson
10

Model Prediction

Gunnar Henderson has a 37.8% chance of reaching base vs Jose Berrios, which is 1.7% higher than Henderson's typical expectations, and 4.7% higher than batters facing Berrios.

Reach Hit HR 2B / 3B 1B BB K
Prediction37.8%28.6%2.6%9.0%17.0%9.2%19.8%
Henderson+1.7+4.0-0.3+3.1+1.2-2.3-2.2
Berrios+4.7+3.7-0.3+3.1+0.9+1.0-3.4

Handedness and Release Point

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Gunnar Henderson is much better vs right-handed pitching. Jose Berrios is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Henderson has an A grade vs this particular release point.

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On the Way to the Plate

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Jose Berrios throws a Sinker 30% of the time. Gunnar Henderson has a B+ grade against right-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type % of Arsenal    Sinker (R)
30%
   Curve (R)
30%
   4-Seam (R)
23%
   Changeup (R)
16%

Contact and Outcomes

13.4% of Gunnar Henderson's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.1% lower than the league average. Jose Berrios strikes out 15.5% of the batters he faces, which is 0.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label 15%         Strikeout -2.1% +0.7% 3%         Walk +2.8% -0.8% 40%         In Play -0.8% +0.1% 39%         On Base +6.2% -0.3% 31%         Hit +3.3% +0.6% 14%         Single +1.3% +0.2% 13%         2B / 3B +1.8% +0.2% 3%         Home Run +0.2% +0.2%

History

Gunnar Henderson has 21 plate appearances against Jose Berrios in the last 3 years. He is 3 for 20 with a walk

PA AB H HR 2/3B 1B K BB Avg
Actual21203003610.150
Expected From Contact →4.330.050.313.970.216
Expected From Contact
Date Outcome HR 2/3B 1B Out
2024-06-05Walk
2024-06-05Groundout77%22%
2024-06-05Groundout2%29%69%
2024-05-13Groundout3%3%94%
2024-05-13Groundout2%98%
2024-05-13Strikeout
2023-08-24Single71%28%
2023-08-24Strikeout
2023-08-24Flyout5%4%92%
2023-06-14Strikeout
2023-06-14Flyout2%98%
2023-06-14Groundout7%93%
2022-10-03Strikeout
2022-10-03Groundout28%71%
2022-10-03Strikeout
2022-09-17Groundout7%93%
2022-09-17Forceout40%59%
2022-09-17Single7%45%48%
2022-09-05Forceout5%95%
2022-09-05Strikeout
2022-09-05Single11%81%8%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.