Matchup Machine

Gunnar Henderson

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matchup for Domingo German

427th out of 436 (Worst 2%)

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Domingo German

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matchup for G. Henderson

74th out of 567 (Best 14%)

Extreme advantage for Henderson
10

Model Prediction

Gunnar Henderson has a 39.5% chance of reaching base vs Domingo German, which is 3.7% higher than Henderson's typical expectations, and 5.7% higher than batters facing German.

Reach Hit HR 2B / 3B 1B BB K
Prediction39.5%26.7%3.7%6.8%16.2%12.8%19.5%
Henderson+3.7+2.2+0.8+0.9+0.5+1.5-2.3
German+5.7+3.7+0.7+1.8+1.3+2.0-1.9

Handedness and Release Point

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Gunnar Henderson is much better vs right-handed pitching. Domingo German is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Henderson has an A- grade vs this particular release point.

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On the Way to the Plate

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Domingo German throws a Curve 36% of the time. Gunnar Henderson has an A grade against right-handed Curves

Pitch Type % of Arsenal    Curve (R)
36%
   4-Seam (R)
30%
   Changeup (R)
20%
   Sinker (R)
7%

Contact and Outcomes

13.4% of Gunnar Henderson's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.0% lower than the league average. Domingo German strikes out 17.0% of the batters he faces, which is 2.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label 15%         Strikeout -2.0% +2.5% 3%         Walk +2.8% 0.0% 40%         In Play -0.8% -2.5% 39%         On Base +6.1% -3.0% 31%         Hit +3.3% -3.0% 14%         Single +1.4% -1.8% 13%         2B / 3B +1.8% -1.4% 3%         Home Run +0.2% +0.2%

History

Gunnar Henderson has 5 plate appearances against Domingo German in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 5 with a strikeout.

PA AB H HR 2/3B 1B K BB Avg
Actual552002100.400
Expected From Contact →1.390.000.171.220.278
Expected From Contact
Date Outcome HR 2/3B 1B Out
2023-07-03Flyout5%3%92%
2023-07-03Strikeout
2023-07-03Single5%22%74%
2022-09-30Groundout7%45%48%
2022-09-30Single52%48%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.