Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Francisco Alvarez

matchup for Ryan Weathers

174th out of 436 (Best 41%)

Ryan Weathers

matchup for F. Alvarez

396th out of 567 (Worst 30%)

Moderate advantage for Weathers

Francisco Alvarez has a 28.8% chance of reaching base vs Ryan Weathers, which is 1.1% lower than Alvarez's typical expectations, and 1.0% lower than batters facing Weathers.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	28.8%	21.6%	1.8%	5.9%	13.8%	7.3%	27.5%
Alvarez	-1.1	-0.6	-0.9	+0.6	-0.3	-0.6	+1.1
Weathers	-1.0	+0.0	-0.2	+0.4	-0.1	-1.1	+2.8

Francisco Alvarez is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Ryan Weathers is left handed with an extreme release toward the first base side. Alvarez has a C grade vs this particular release point.

Ryan Weathers throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Francisco Alvarez has an A+ grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

44%

Slider (L)

25%

Changeup (L)

18%

Sinker (L)

13%

12% of Ryan Weathers's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Francisco Alvarez has an A- grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Likely Ball 21%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Non-Competitive 13%

+0%

Fringe Miss 12%

Edge Painter 17%

Weak Challenge 8%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Chaser 5%

-1%

53% of Ryan Weathers's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 32% higher than the MLB average. Francisco Alvarez has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Large Break 53%

+32%

Fast Velo 28%

+19%

Low Ride 37%

+14%

15.9% of Francisco Alvarez's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.1% higher than the league average. Ryan Weathers strikes out 14.3% of the batters he faces, which is 2.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.1% -2.1% 4%

Walk +0.8% -0.6% 41%

In Play -2.9% +2.7% 39%

On Base +0.9% +0.9% 31%

Hit +0.1% +1.5% 14%

Single -0.5% +0.9% 13%

2B / 3B +0.1% +1.2% 3%

Home Run +0.6% -0.5%

39.6% of Francisco Alvarez's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.2% higher than the league average. Ryan Weathers induces Standard Grounders at a 40.1% rate, which is 5.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% +0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.2% +5.7% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.4% -0.6% 14%

Low Screamer -3.1% -1.1% 9%

Rising Liner -0.9% -1.3% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.7% +1.4% 3%

Likely Homer +0.7% -0.7% 1%

No Doubter +2.2% +0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout -4.6% -5.5% 3%

Pop up +1.4% +1.2%

29.5% of Francisco Alvarez's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.2% higher than the league average. 25.4% of batted balls allowed by Ryan Weathers are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.4% +0.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.6% +1.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -7.3% -0.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.2% -2.0% 24%

Above 100 mph +5.2% +1.1%

8.5% of Francisco Alvarez's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.9% lower than the league average. 7.7% of batted balls allowed by Ryan Weathers are hit at this angle, which is 3.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +4.3% +3.9% 12%

-10 to 0° +3.5% +2.6% 8%

1 to 6° -3.4% +1.2% 18%

7 to 18° -1.8% -3.3% 15%

19 to 28° -0.3% +0.1% 11%

29 to 38° -2.9% -3.8% 7%

39 to 50° -2.0% +0.2% 8%

Above 50° +2.6% -0.9%

Francisco Alvarez has 2 plate appearances against Ryan Weathers in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 2 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.02	0.00	0.01	0.01			0.010

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-04-11	Strikeout
2023-04-11	Groundout			1%	98%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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