Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Francisco Alvarez

matchup for Andrew Abbott

166th out of 436 (Best 39%)

Andrew Abbott

matchup for F. Alvarez

214th out of 567 (Best 39%)

Leans in favor of Alvarez

Francisco Alvarez has a 30.8% chance of reaching base vs Andrew Abbott, which is 0.9% higher than Alvarez's typical expectations, and 1.2% lower than batters facing Abbott.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.8%	21.1%	3.1%	5.8%	12.2%	9.7%	25.4%
Alvarez	+0.9	-1.0	+0.4	+0.5	-1.9	+1.9	-1.0
Abbott	-1.2	-0.5	-0.1	+0.5	-0.8	-0.7	+3.2

Francisco Alvarez is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Andrew Abbott is left handed with a moderate release toward the first base side. Alvarez has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Andrew Abbott throws a 4-seam fastball 52% of the time. Francisco Alvarez has an A+ grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

52%

Slider (L)

18%

Changeup (L)

16%

Curve (L)

14%

8% of Andrew Abbott's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Francisco Alvarez hasn't faced this type of pitch very often.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 8%

+2%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Non-Competitive 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Likely Ball 20%

+0%

Fringe Miss 12%

Strong Challenge 5%

Chaser 4%

-1%

Weak Challenge 7%

-2%

40% of Andrew Abbott's pitches are classified as Medium Fast Velocity, which is 24% higher than the MLB average. Francisco Alvarez has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Fast Velo 40%

+24%

Medium Break 37%

+18%

Medium Ride 32%

+18%

15.9% of Francisco Alvarez's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.1% higher than the league average. Andrew Abbott strikes out 13.8% of the batters he faces, which is 1.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.1% -1.6% 4%

Walk +0.8% +0.9% 41%

In Play -2.9% +0.7% 39%

On Base +0.9% -1.6% 31%

Hit +0.1% -2.5% 14%

Single -0.5% -1.5% 13%

2B / 3B +0.1% -1.1% 3%

Home Run +0.6% +0.2%

39.6% of Francisco Alvarez's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.2% higher than the league average. Andrew Abbott induces Standard Grounders at a 27.7% rate, which is 6.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% -0.7% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.2% -6.7% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.4% -2.8% 14%

Low Screamer -3.1% -2.4% 9%

Rising Liner -0.9% -2.1% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.7% +2.3% 3%

Likely Homer +0.7% +1.5% 1%

No Doubter +2.2% -0.9% 20%

Routine Flyout -4.6% +7.0% 3%

Pop up +1.4% +4.8%

29.5% of Francisco Alvarez's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.2% higher than the league average. 20.6% of batted balls allowed by Andrew Abbott are hit at above 100 mph, which is 3.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.4% 0.0% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.6% -1.5% 18%

87 to 93 mph -7.3% +2.1% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.2% +3.0% 24%

Above 100 mph +5.2% -3.7%

8.5% of Francisco Alvarez's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.9% lower than the league average. 9.6% of batted balls allowed by Andrew Abbott are hit at this angle, which is 1.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +4.3% -7.5% 12%

-10 to 0° +3.5% -3.3% 8%

1 to 6° -3.4% +1.1% 18%

7 to 18° -1.8% -5.1% 15%

19 to 28° -0.3% +6.1% 11%

29 to 38° -2.9% -1.9% 7%

39 to 50° -2.0% +2.9% 8%

Above 50° +2.6% +7.8%

Francisco Alvarez has 6 plate appearances against Andrew Abbott in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 5 with a double and a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	5	2	0	1	1	1	1	0.400
Expected From Contact →			1.32	0.01	0.53	0.78			0.264

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-04-07	Walk
2024-04-07	Single			58%	41%
2024-04-07	Groundout
2023-09-16	Strikeout
2023-09-16	Double		52%	20%	27%
2023-09-16	Flyout				100%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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