Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Francisco Alvarez

matchup for Corbin Burnes

174th out of 436 (Best 41%)

Corbin Burnes

matchup for F. Alvarez

389th out of 567 (Worst 32%)

Moderate advantage for Burnes

Francisco Alvarez has a 28.8% chance of reaching base vs Corbin Burnes, which is 1.2% lower than Alvarez's typical expectations, and 1.0% lower than batters facing Burnes.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	28.8%	22.1%	2.2%	4.6%	15.4%	6.7%	25.0%
Alvarez	-1.2	0.0	-0.5	-0.7	+1.2	-1.2	-1.4
Burnes	-1.0	+0.3	-0.2	+0.2	+0.3	-1.3	+1.8

Francisco Alvarez is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Corbin Burnes is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Alvarez has a C+ grade vs this particular release point.

Corbin Burnes throws a Cutter 52% of the time. Francisco Alvarez hasn't faced this pitch from right handers very often

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Cutter (R)

52%

Curve (R)

19%

Slider (R)

10%

Changeup (R)

10%

Sinker (R)

24% of Corbin Burnes's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Francisco Alvarez has a C+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 24%

+4%

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Chaser 8%

+2%

Fringe Miss 14%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

-1%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-3%

Meatball 2%

-4%

47% of Corbin Burnes's pitches are classified as Low Ride, which is 23% higher than the MLB average. Francisco Alvarez has an A- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Low Ride 47%

+23%

Fast Velo 36%

+21%

Small Break 31%

+20%

15.9% of Francisco Alvarez's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.1% higher than the league average. Corbin Burnes strikes out 17.4% of the batters he faces, which is 3.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.1% +3.2% 4%

Walk +0.8% -1.6% 41%

In Play -2.9% -1.6% 39%

On Base +0.9% -3.4% 31%

Hit +0.1% -1.8% 14%

Single -0.5% -0.7% 13%

2B / 3B +0.1% -0.2% 3%

Home Run +0.6% -0.8%

39.6% of Francisco Alvarez's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.2% higher than the league average. Corbin Burnes induces Standard Grounders at a 40.0% rate, which is 5.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.2% +5.5% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.4% +0.9% 14%

Low Screamer -3.1% -1.1% 9%

Rising Liner -0.9% -1.1% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.7% -1.4% 3%

Likely Homer +0.7% -0.1% 1%

No Doubter +2.2% +0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout -4.6% -2.7% 3%

Pop up +1.4% 0.0%

29.5% of Francisco Alvarez's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.2% higher than the league average. 23.7% of batted balls allowed by Corbin Burnes are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.4% +2.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.6% +0.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph -7.3% +2.9% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.2% -4.7% 24%

Above 100 mph +5.2% -0.6%

8.5% of Francisco Alvarez's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.9% lower than the league average. 10.1% of batted balls allowed by Corbin Burnes are hit at this angle, which is 1.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%