Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Francisco Alvarez

matchup for Tanner Houck

181st out of 436 (Best 42%)

Tanner Houck

matchup for F. Alvarez

308th out of 567 (Worst 46%)

Leans in favor of Houck

Francisco Alvarez has a 29.9% chance of reaching base vs Tanner Houck, which is 0.1% higher than Alvarez's typical expectations, and 1.9% lower than batters facing Houck.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	29.9%	22.2%	2.0%	4.5%	15.7%	7.7%	18.9%
Alvarez	-0.1	+0.0	-0.7	-0.8	+1.5	-0.1	-7.5
Houck	-1.9	+0.1	-0.1	+0.2	+0.1	-2.0	-0.8

Francisco Alvarez is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Tanner Houck is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Alvarez has an A- grade vs this particular release point.

Tanner Houck throws a Slider 40% of the time. Francisco Alvarez has an A grade against right-handed Sliders

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Slider (R)

40%

Sinker (R)

28%

Splitter (R)

15%

4-Seam (R)

14%

10% of Tanner Houck's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Francisco Alvarez has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Strong Challenge 5%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Meatball 4%

-2%

53% of Tanner Houck's pitches are classified as Medium Drop, which is 41% higher than the MLB average. Francisco Alvarez has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Drop 53%

+41%

Large Break 17%

+12%

Breaking (R) 40%

+9%

Very Slow Velo 22%

+9%

15.9% of Francisco Alvarez's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.1% higher than the league average. Tanner Houck strikes out 14.2% of the batters he faces, which is 1.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.1% -1.6% 4%

Walk +0.8% +0.2% 41%

In Play -2.9% +1.4% 39%

On Base +0.9% +0.4% 31%

Hit +0.1% +0.3% 14%

Single -0.5% +0.4% 13%

2B / 3B +0.1% +0.7% 3%

Home Run +0.6% -0.9%

39.6% of Francisco Alvarez's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.2% higher than the league average. Tanner Houck induces Standard Grounders at a 41.9% rate, which is 7.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% -0.7% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.2% +7.5% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.4% +2.4% 14%

Low Screamer -3.1% -5.6% 9%

Rising Liner -0.9% +2.9% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.7% -1.1% 3%

Likely Homer +0.7% -1.1% 1%

No Doubter +2.2% -0.6% 20%

Routine Flyout -4.6% -2.8% 3%

Pop up +1.4% -0.9%

29.5% of Francisco Alvarez's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.2% higher than the league average. 30.6% of batted balls allowed by Tanner Houck are hit at above 100 mph, which is 6.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.4% -0.8% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.6% -0.5% 18%

87 to 93 mph -7.3% -4.3% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.2% -0.6% 24%

Above 100 mph +5.2% +6.3%

8.5% of Francisco Alvarez's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.9% lower than the league average. 10.1% of batted balls allowed by Tanner Houck are hit at this angle, which is 1.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +4.3% +7.8% 12%

-10 to 0° +3.5% +1.7% 8%

1 to 6° -3.4% +1.7% 18%

7 to 18° -1.8% -0.1% 15%

19 to 28° -0.3% -4.1% 11%

29 to 38° -2.9% -1.3% 7%

39 to 50° -2.0% -2.7% 8%

Above 50° +2.6% -2.9%

Francisco Alvarez has 2 plate appearances against Tanner Houck in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 2 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.59	0.13	0.44	0.03			0.294

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-09-04	Lineout	13%	44%	3%	41%
2024-09-04	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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