Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Francisco Alvarez

matchup for Jack Flaherty

175th out of 436 (Best 41%)

Jack Flaherty

matchup for F. Alvarez

116th out of 567 (Best 21%)

Moderate advantage for Alvarez

Francisco Alvarez has a 31.6% chance of reaching base vs Jack Flaherty, which is 1.6% higher than Alvarez's typical expectations, and 2.6% lower than batters facing Flaherty.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.6%	23.1%	3.3%	6.4%	13.3%	8.5%	23.1%
Alvarez	+1.6	+0.9	+0.6	+1.1	-0.8	+0.7	-3.3
Flaherty	-2.6	-0.2	-0.3	+1.2	-1.2	-2.5	+0.3

Francisco Alvarez is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Jack Flaherty is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Alvarez has an A- grade vs this particular release point.

Jack Flaherty throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Francisco Alvarez has a D- grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

44%

Slider (R)

27%

Kn-Curve (R)

18%

21% of Jack Flaherty's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Francisco Alvarez has a C+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 21%

+2%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

Mid Challenge 11%

Chaser 6%

Weak Challenge 8%

Meatball 6%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

45% of Jack Flaherty's pitches are classified as Breaking Pitches, which is 14% higher than the MLB average. Francisco Alvarez has an A- grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Breaking (R) 45%

+14%

Medium Break 20%

+11%

15.9% of Francisco Alvarez's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.1% higher than the league average. Jack Flaherty strikes out 20.5% of the batters he faces, which is 5.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.1% +5.8% 4%

Walk +0.8% -1.5% 41%

In Play -2.9% -4.3% 39%

On Base +0.9% -2.0% 31%

Hit +0.1% -0.5% 14%

Single -0.5% +0.0% 13%

2B / 3B +0.1% -0.3% 3%

Home Run +0.6% -0.2%

39.6% of Francisco Alvarez's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.2% higher than the league average. Jack Flaherty induces Standard Grounders at a 36.3% rate, which is 1.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% -0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.2% +1.9% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.4% -1.5% 14%

Low Screamer -3.1% +1.6% 9%

Rising Liner -0.9% +0.7% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.7% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer +0.7% +0.1% 1%

No Doubter +2.2% -0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout -4.6% -1.3% 3%

Pop up +1.4% -0.8%

29.5% of Francisco Alvarez's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.2% higher than the league average. 21.5% of batted balls allowed by Jack Flaherty are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.4% +1.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.6% +2.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -7.3% +0.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.2% -1.3% 24%

Above 100 mph +5.2% -2.8%

8.5% of Francisco Alvarez's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.9% lower than the league average. 12.2% of batted balls allowed by Jack Flaherty are hit at this angle, which is 0.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +4.3% +0.6% 12%

-10 to 0° +3.5% -1.0% 8%

1 to 6° -3.4% +0.2% 18%

7 to 18° -1.8% +1.4% 15%

19 to 28° -0.3% +0.2% 11%

29 to 38° -2.9% +0.7% 7%

39 to 50° -2.0% -0.2% 8%

Above 50° +2.6% -1.9%

Francisco Alvarez has 4 plate appearances against Jack Flaherty in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 4 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	4	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	0.500
Expected From Contact →			1.01	0.00	0.35	0.65			0.252

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-10-18	Double		18%	6%	76%
2024-10-18	Single		4%	56%	40%
2024-10-13	Strikeout
2024-10-13	Lineout		14%	3%	83%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine Log InSubscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe