Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Francisco Alvarez

matchup for Aaron Nola

259th out of 436 (Worst 41%)

Aaron Nola

matchup for F. Alvarez

304th out of 567 (Worst 47%)

Leans in favor of Nola

Francisco Alvarez has a 28.9% chance of reaching base vs Aaron Nola, which is 1.1% lower than Alvarez's typical expectations, and 0.6% lower than batters facing Nola.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	28.9%	23.2%	3.5%	6.8%	12.9%	5.7%	32.1%
Alvarez	-1.1	+1.1	+0.8	+1.5	-1.3	-2.2	+5.7
Nola	-0.6	+0.8	+0.5	+0.6	-0.3	-1.4	+1.2

Francisco Alvarez is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Aaron Nola is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Alvarez has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Aaron Nola throws a Kn-Curve 30% of the time. Francisco Alvarez hasn't faced this pitch from right handers very often

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Kn-Curve (R)

30%

4-Seam (R)

30%

Sinker (R)

20%

Changeup (R)

12%

Cutter (R)

8% of Aaron Nola's pitches are classified as Chasers, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Francisco Alvarez hasn't faced this type of pitch very often.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Chaser 8%

+2%

Edge Painter 19%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

+0%

Weak Challenge 8%

Likely Ball 19%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

26% of Aaron Nola's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 21% higher than the MLB average. Francisco Alvarez hasn't faced this type of pitch enough to assign a grade.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 26%

+21%

Extreme Slow Velo 23%

+18%

Large Break 22%

+18%

15.9% of Francisco Alvarez's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.1% higher than the league average. Aaron Nola strikes out 20.3% of the batters he faces, which is 6.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.1% +6.3% 4%

Walk +0.8% -2.8% 41%

In Play -2.9% -3.5% 39%

On Base +0.9% -4.8% 31%

Hit +0.1% -2.0% 14%

Single -0.5% -0.8% 13%

2B / 3B +0.1% -0.7% 3%

Home Run +0.6% -0.5%

39.6% of Francisco Alvarez's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.2% higher than the league average. Aaron Nola induces Standard Grounders at a 37.3% rate, which is 2.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% 0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.2% +2.9% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.4% -0.6% 14%

Low Screamer -3.1% -1.6% 9%

Rising Liner -0.9% +0.5% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.7% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer +0.7% +0.1% 1%

No Doubter +2.2% +0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout -4.6% -0.4% 3%

Pop up +1.4% -0.7%

29.5% of Francisco Alvarez's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.2% higher than the league average. 23.6% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Nola are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.4% +0.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.6% -0.2% 18%

87 to 93 mph -7.3% +2.2% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.2% -1.9% 24%

Above 100 mph +5.2% -0.7%

8.5% of Francisco Alvarez's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.9% lower than the league average. 10.9% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Nola are hit at this angle, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +4.3% -0.8% 12%

-10 to 0° +3.5% +1.8% 8%

1 to 6° -3.4% +0.2% 18%

7 to 18° -1.8% +0.8% 15%

19 to 28° -0.3% +0.1% 11%

29 to 38° -2.9% -0.6% 7%

39 to 50° -2.0% -0.2% 8%

Above 50° +2.6% -1.3%

Francisco Alvarez has 4 plate appearances against Aaron Nola in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 4 with a home run and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	0	0.500
Expected From Contact →			2.10	1.36	0.56	0.18			0.525

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-10-08	Single	37%	55%	7%
2024-10-08	Strikeout
2024-09-13	Home Run	99%
2024-09-13	Groundout			11%	89%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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