Matchup Machine

Francisco Alvarez

Worst 30% of matchups for Austin Gomber

Austin Gomber

Best 17% of matchups for F. Alvarez

Strong advantage for Alvarez

Model Prediction
Prediction	4.9%	4.1%	13.3%	7.7%	19.0%
MLB (+/-)	+2.1	-0.2	-0.6	-2.0	-6.2
Alvarez	+0.3	+0.1	+2.3	-1.9	-9.1
Gomber	+1.6	-0.3	-2.9	-0.1	+2.7

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

4.9%

4.1%

13.3%

7.7%

19.0%

MLB (+/-)

+2.1

-0.2

-0.6

-2.0

-6.2

Alvarez

+0.3

+0.1

+2.3

-1.9

-9.1

Gomber

+1.6

-0.3

-2.9

-0.1

+2.7

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	5	4	2	1	0	1	1	1	.500
Expected From Contact →			2.10	0.99	0.05	1.07			.526

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-05-28	Strikeout
2023-05-28	Home Run	99%
2023-05-28	GIDP		2%	19%	78%
2023-05-06	Single		2%	87%	11%
2023-05-06	Walk

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	48%	56	RHB vs LHP	-14	80%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

48%

RHB vs LHP

-14

80%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
⭐	46%	67	Fastball	16	45%
	27%	57	Breaking	-26	37%
	12%	45	Offspeed	0	18%
			------------------
⭐⭐	47%	96	Four-Seam FB	-3	44%
⭐	51%	70	Slider	-6	20%
	54%	14	Changeup	0	18%
	36%	28	Knuckle-Curve	-94	17%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

⭐

46%

Fastball

45%

27%

Breaking

-26

37%

12%

Offspeed

18%

------------------

⭐⭐

47%

Four-Seam FB

-3

44%

⭐

51%

Slider

-6

20%

54%

Changeup

18%

36%

Knuckle-Curve

-94

17%

	Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
	65%	21	Bottom of zone	13	13%
	77%	58	Top of zone	-3	12%
⭐⭐	70%	83	Away / Arm Side	9	11%
⭐⭐	70%	100	In / Glove Side	-29	10%
	73%	13	Middle	-23	7%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

65%

Bottom of zone

13%

77%

Top of zone

-3

12%

⭐⭐

70%

Away / Arm Side

11%

⭐⭐

70%

100

In / Glove Side

-29

10%

73%

Middle

-23

	Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
	36%	14	Below the zone	22	30%
⭐⭐	33%	103	In / Glove Side	30	24%
	37%	27	Above the zone	8	24%
	34%	1	Away / Arm Side	-3	22%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

36%

Below the zone

30%

⭐⭐

33%

103

In / Glove Side

24%

37%

Above the zone

24%

34%

Away / Arm Side

-3

22%

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
⭐	42%	66	First Pitch	10	28%
⭐	51%	60	Batter Behind	0	28%
	48%	54	Batter Ahead	4	26%
	60%	51	2 Strikes	-23	26%
	61%	47	3 Balls	2	8%
	73%	12	Full Count	-9	4%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

⭐

42%

First Pitch

28%

⭐

51%

Batter Behind

28%

48%

Batter Ahead

26%

60%

2 Strikes

-23

26%

61%

3 Balls

73%

Full Count

-9