Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Francisco Alvarez

matchup for Dylan Floro

165th out of 436 (Best 39%)

Dylan Floro

matchup for F. Alvarez

96th out of 567 (Best 18%)

Strong advantage for Alvarez

Francisco Alvarez has a 31.6% chance of reaching base vs Dylan Floro, which is 1.7% higher than Alvarez's typical expectations, and 1.9% lower than batters facing Floro.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.6%	27.0%	3.3%	5.2%	18.6%	4.6%	17.5%
Alvarez	+1.7	+4.9	+0.6	-0.1	+4.5	-3.2	-8.9
Floro	-1.9	+0.6	+0.2	-0.1	+0.5	-2.5	+0.8

Francisco Alvarez is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Dylan Floro is right handed with an extreme release toward the third base side. Alvarez has a B+ grade vs this particular release point.

Dylan Floro throws a Sinker 41% of the time. Francisco Alvarez has a B grade against right-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (R)

41%

Slider (R)

24%

4-Seam (R)

22%

Changeup (R)

14%

11% of Dylan Floro's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Francisco Alvarez has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 11%

+3%

Chaser 8%

+2%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

48% of Dylan Floro's pitches are classified as Extreme Break Toward Third Base, which is 34% higher than the MLB average. Francisco Alvarez has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Break 48%

+34%

Just Gravity 30%

+16%

Medium Fast Velo 29%

+14%

Fastball (R) 63%

+9%

15.9% of Francisco Alvarez's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.1% higher than the league average. Dylan Floro strikes out 13.9% of the batters he faces, which is 2.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.1% -2.5% 4%

Walk +0.8% -1.6% 41%

In Play -2.9% +4.0% 39%

On Base +0.9% +3.4% 31%

Hit +0.1% +5.0% 14%

Single -0.5% +3.0% 13%

2B / 3B +0.1% +3.3% 3%

Home Run +0.6% -1.3%

39.6% of Francisco Alvarez's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.2% higher than the league average. Dylan Floro induces Standard Grounders at a 39.3% rate, which is 4.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% +0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.2% +4.9% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.4% -0.5% 14%

Low Screamer -3.1% -3.6% 9%

Rising Liner -0.9% +0.3% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.7% -2.3% 3%

Likely Homer +0.7% +0.3% 1%

No Doubter +2.2% -1.1% 20%

Routine Flyout -4.6% +2.1% 3%

Pop up +1.4% -0.2%

29.5% of Francisco Alvarez's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.2% higher than the league average. 20.5% of batted balls allowed by Dylan Floro are hit at above 100 mph, which is 3.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.4% -2.0% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.6% +0.8% 18%

87 to 93 mph -7.3% +4.2% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.2% +0.8% 24%

Above 100 mph +5.2% -3.8%

8.5% of Francisco Alvarez's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.9% lower than the league average. 10.2% of batted balls allowed by Dylan Floro are hit at this angle, which is 1.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +4.3% +1.1% 12%

-10 to 0° +3.5% +1.6% 8%

1 to 6° -3.4% +0.6% 18%

7 to 18° -1.8% +0.0% 15%

19 to 28° -0.3% +0.7% 11%

29 to 38° -2.9% -1.2% 7%

39 to 50° -2.0% -0.3% 8%

Above 50° +2.6% -2.4%

Francisco Alvarez has 4 plate appearances against Dylan Floro in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 4 with 3 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00			0.002

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-07-02	Strikeout
2024-07-01	Strikeout
2023-09-09	Flyout				99%
2023-04-09	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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