Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Francisco Alvarez

matchup for Patrick Corbin

188th out of 436 (Best 44%)

Patrick Corbin

matchup for F. Alvarez

147th out of 567 (Best 27%)

Moderate advantage for Alvarez

Francisco Alvarez has a 31.4% chance of reaching base vs Patrick Corbin, which is 1.4% higher than Alvarez's typical expectations, and 1.6% lower than batters facing Corbin.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.4%	24.9%	2.8%	6.2%	15.8%	6.5%	22.6%
Alvarez	+1.4	+2.7	+0.1	+0.9	+1.7	-1.3	-3.7
Corbin	-1.6	-0.5	+0.2	+0.5	-1.1	-1.2	+1.0

Francisco Alvarez is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Patrick Corbin is left handed with a horizontal release toward the first base side. Alvarez has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Patrick Corbin throws a Sinker 38% of the time. Francisco Alvarez hasn't faced this pitch from left handers very often.

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (L)

38%

Slider (L)

34%

4-Seam (L)

16%

Changeup (L)

Cutter (L)

23% of Patrick Corbin's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Francisco Alvarez has a C+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 23%

+3%

Weak Challenge 10%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Chaser 6%

+0%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Mid Challenge 11%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-3%

45% of Patrick Corbin's pitches are classified as Low Ride, which is 21% higher than the MLB average. Francisco Alvarez has an A- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Low Ride 45%

+21%

Minimal Break 23%

+13%

Medium Fast Velo 27%

+11%

15.9% of Francisco Alvarez's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.1% higher than the league average. Patrick Corbin strikes out 17.4% of the batters he faces, which is 2.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.1% +2.1% 4%

Walk +0.8% -2.5% 41%

In Play -2.9% +0.4% 39%

On Base +0.9% -0.7% 31%

Hit +0.1% +1.8% 14%

Single -0.5% +1.2% 13%

2B / 3B +0.1% +1.2% 3%

Home Run +0.6% -0.7%

39.6% of Francisco Alvarez's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.2% higher than the league average. Patrick Corbin induces Standard Grounders at a 37.2% rate, which is 2.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.2% +2.8% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.4% +2.4% 14%

Low Screamer -3.1% -2.1% 9%

Rising Liner -0.9% +1.9% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.7% -0.5% 3%

Likely Homer +0.7% -0.1% 1%

No Doubter +2.2% -0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout -4.6% -3.5% 3%

Pop up +1.4% -0.7%

29.5% of Francisco Alvarez's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.2% higher than the league average. 29.8% of batted balls allowed by Patrick Corbin are hit at above 100 mph, which is 5.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.4% -2.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.6% +1.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph -7.3% -2.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.2% -1.4% 24%

Above 100 mph +5.2% +5.5%

8.5% of Francisco Alvarez's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.9% lower than the league average. 10.3% of batted balls allowed by Patrick Corbin are hit at this angle, which is 1.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +4.3% +1.7% 12%

-10 to 0° +3.5% +0.9% 8%

1 to 6° -3.4% +3.4% 18%

7 to 18° -1.8% +0.8% 15%

19 to 28° -0.3% -2.1% 11%

29 to 38° -2.9% -1.1% 7%

39 to 50° -2.0% -2.2% 8%

Above 50° +2.6% -1.4%

Francisco Alvarez has 8 plate appearances against Patrick Corbin in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 5 with a home run, 3 walks

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	8	5	2	1	0	1	0	3	0.400
Expected From Contact →			1.53	1.00	0.15	0.39			0.305

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-07-10	Walk
2024-07-10	Single			15%	84%
2023-09-05	Home Run	100%
2023-09-05	Walk
2023-07-29	Groundout			3%	97%
2023-07-29	Flyout		12%	17%	70%
2023-05-15	Groundout		1%	3%	96%
2023-05-15	Walk

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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