Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Francisco Alvarez

matchup for Chris Sale

122nd out of 436 (Best 29%)

Chris Sale

matchup for F. Alvarez

497th out of 567 (Worst 13%)

Strong advantage for Sale

Francisco Alvarez has a 27.0% chance of reaching base vs Chris Sale, which is 3.0% lower than Alvarez's typical expectations, and 2.6% lower than batters facing Sale.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	27.0%	21.2%	1.8%	5.7%	13.7%	5.7%	35.6%
Alvarez	-3.0	-0.9	-0.9	+0.4	-0.4	-2.1	+9.3
Sale	-2.6	-1.0	-0.3	-0.1	-0.7	-1.5	+4.1

Francisco Alvarez is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Chris Sale is left handed with an extreme release toward the first base side. Alvarez has a C grade vs this particular release point.

Chris Sale throws a 4-seam fastball 39% of the time. Francisco Alvarez has an A+ grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

39%

Slider (L)

38%

Changeup (L)

15%

8% of Chris Sale's pitches are classified as Strong Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Francisco Alvarez hasn't faced this type of pitch very often.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Strong Challenge 8%

+3%

Mid Challenge 13%

+2%

Chaser 8%

+2%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Weak Challenge 9%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

Non-Competitive 10%

-2%

Meatball 2%

-4%

46% of Chris Sale's pitches are classified as Extreme Break Toward Third Base, which is 30% higher than the MLB average. Francisco Alvarez has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Break 46%

+30%

Large Drop 28%

+23%

Extreme Slow Velo 22%

+13%

Breaking (L) 38%

+8%

15.9% of Francisco Alvarez's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.1% higher than the league average. Chris Sale strikes out 23.2% of the batters he faces, which is 11.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.1% +11.2% 4%

Walk +0.8% -2.1% 41%

In Play -2.9% -9.1% 39%

On Base +0.9% -4.6% 31%

Hit +0.1% -2.5% 14%

Single -0.5% -0.8% 13%

2B / 3B +0.1% -1.0% 3%

Home Run +0.6% -0.6%

39.6% of Francisco Alvarez's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.2% higher than the league average. Chris Sale induces Standard Grounders at a 36.5% rate, which is 2.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% -0.4% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.2% +2.0% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.4% -1.4% 14%

Low Screamer -3.1% +0.9% 9%

Rising Liner -0.9% +0.2% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.7% +0.9% 3%

Likely Homer +0.7% -0.7% 1%

No Doubter +2.2% -0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout -4.6% -0.9% 3%

Pop up +1.4% -0.5%

29.5% of Francisco Alvarez's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.2% higher than the league average. 21.5% of batted balls allowed by Chris Sale are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.4% +2.8% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.6% +3.4% 18%

87 to 93 mph -7.3% -1.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.2% -2.4% 24%

Above 100 mph +5.2% -2.8%

8.5% of Francisco Alvarez's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.9% lower than the league average. 13.6% of batted balls allowed by Chris Sale are hit at this angle, which is 2.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +4.3% -0.1% 12%

-10 to 0° +3.5% -0.9% 8%

1 to 6° -3.4% +1.2% 18%

7 to 18° -1.8% -1.4% 15%

19 to 28° -0.3% +0.1% 11%

29 to 38° -2.9% +2.2% 7%

39 to 50° -2.0% +0.3% 8%

Above 50° +2.6% -1.4%

Francisco Alvarez has 2 plate appearances against Chris Sale in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 2.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.35	0.00	0.03	0.32			0.174

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-07-25	Groundout		2%	15%	83%
2024-07-25	Groundout			17%	82%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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