Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Kerry Carpenter

matchup for Corbin Burnes

402nd out of 436 (Worst 8%)

Corbin Burnes

matchup for Kerry Carpenter

234th out of 567 (Best 42%)

Moderate advantage for Carpenter

Kerry Carpenter has a 31.5% chance of reaching base vs Corbin Burnes, which is 0.9% higher than Carpenter's typical expectations, and 1.7% higher than batters facing Burnes.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.5%	24.8%	3.7%	5.7%	15.4%	6.7%	25.6%
Carpenter	+0.9	+1.5	-0.4	+0.1	+1.8	-0.6	-4.4
Burnes	+1.7	+3.0	+1.3	+1.4	+0.3	-1.3	+2.4

Kerry Carpenter is much better vs right-handed pitching. Corbin Burnes is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Carpenter has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Corbin Burnes throws a Cutter 52% of the time. Kerry Carpenter has an A+ grade against right-handed Cutters

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Cutter (R)

52%

Curve (R)

19%

Slider (R)

10%

Changeup (R)

10%

Sinker (R)

24% of Corbin Burnes's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Kerry Carpenter has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 24%

+4%

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Chaser 8%

+2%

Fringe Miss 14%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

-1%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-3%

Meatball 2%

-4%

47% of Corbin Burnes's pitches are classified as Low Ride, which is 23% higher than the MLB average. Kerry Carpenter has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Low Ride 47%

+23%

Fast Velo 36%

+21%

Small Break 31%

+20%

16.5% of Kerry Carpenter's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 3.2% higher than the league average. Corbin Burnes strikes out 17.4% of the batters he faces, which is 3.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +3.2% +3.2% 5%

Walk -1.5% -1.6% 40%

In Play -1.7% -1.6% 39%

On Base -4.2% -3.4% 31%

Hit -2.6% -1.8% 14%

Single -3.4% -0.7% 13%

2B / 3B -2.7% -0.2% 3%

Home Run +3.5% -0.8%

39.5% of Kerry Carpenter's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.1% higher than the league average. Corbin Burnes induces Standard Grounders at a 40.0% rate, which is 5.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.1% +5.5% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.5% +0.9% 14%

Low Screamer -4.9% -1.1% 9%

Rising Liner +1.0% -1.1% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.7% -1.4% 3%

Likely Homer +2.7% -0.1% 1%

No Doubter +0.3% +0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.9% -2.7% 3%

Pop up -2.1% 0.0%

22.8% of Kerry Carpenter's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.5% lower than the league average. 23.7% of batted balls allowed by Corbin Burnes are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -5.5% +2.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph +2.6% +0.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph +2.0% +2.9% 19%

94 to 99 mph +2.4% -4.7% 24%

Above 100 mph -1.5% -0.6%

13.1% of Kerry Carpenter's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.7% higher than the league average. 10.1% of batted balls allowed by Corbin Burnes are hit at this angle, which is 1.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.0% +2.4% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.1% +0.9% 8%

1 to 6° -2.4% +2.4% 18%

7 to 18° +4.9% -1.5% 15%

19 to 28° -1.3% -4.1% 11%

29 to 38° +1.7% -1.3% 7%

39 to 50° -1.2% -0.9% 8%

Above 50° -0.6% +2.2%

Kerry Carpenter has 6 plate appearances against Corbin Burnes in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 5 with a double and a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	5	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.200
Expected From Contact →			1.48	0.00	0.94	0.55			0.297

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-09-20	Double		93%	7%
2024-09-20	Walk
2024-09-20	Groundout			37%	62%
2024-09-14	Flyout				100%
2024-09-14	GIDP			2%	98%
2024-09-14	Groundout			8%	91%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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