Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Kerry Carpenter

matchup for Griffin Canning

400th out of 436 (Worst 8%)

Griffin Canning

matchup for Kerry Carpenter

85th out of 567 (Best 16%)

Extreme advantage for Carpenter

Kerry Carpenter has a 33.7% chance of reaching base vs Griffin Canning, which is 3.1% higher than Carpenter's typical expectations, and 0.6% higher than batters facing Canning.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	33.7%	25.9%	5.0%	6.7%	14.2%	7.8%	25.3%
Carpenter	+3.1	+2.5	+0.9	+1.1	+0.5	+0.6	-4.6
Canning	+0.6	+4.2	+2.2	+1.8	+0.3	-3.6	+3.8

Kerry Carpenter is much better vs right-handed pitching. Griffin Canning is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Carpenter has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Griffin Canning throws a 4-seam fastball 39% of the time. Kerry Carpenter has an A grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

39%

Slider (R)

27%

Changeup (R)

21%

Curve (R)

11%

14% of Griffin Canning's pitches are classified as Non-Competitive, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Kerry Carpenter has an A- grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Non-Competitive 14%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Meatball 7%

+0%

Weak Challenge 8%

+0%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Mid Challenge 11%

Chaser 6%

Strong Challenge 5%

-1%

Edge Painter 17%

-1%

38% of Griffin Canning's pitches are classified as Medium Slow Velocity, which is 24% higher than the MLB average. Kerry Carpenter has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Slow Velo 38%

+24%

Offspeed (R) 21%

+9%

Medium Break 28%

+9%

16.5% of Kerry Carpenter's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 3.2% higher than the league average. Griffin Canning strikes out 14.3% of the batters he faces, which is 1.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +3.2% -1.9% 5%

Walk -1.5% +0.3% 40%

In Play -1.7% +1.6% 39%

On Base -4.2% -0.8% 31%

Hit -2.6% -1.1% 14%

Single -3.4% -0.9% 13%

2B / 3B -2.7% -0.7% 3%

Home Run +3.5% +0.6%

39.5% of Kerry Carpenter's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.1% higher than the league average. Griffin Canning induces Standard Grounders at a 31.2% rate, which is 3.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% -0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.1% -3.2% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.5% +1.2% 14%

Low Screamer -4.9% +0.6% 9%

Rising Liner +1.0% -0.2% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.7% -0.8% 3%

Likely Homer +2.7% +0.6% 1%

No Doubter +0.3% +0.6% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.9% +2.3% 3%

Pop up -2.1% -0.7%

22.8% of Kerry Carpenter's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.5% lower than the league average. 25.9% of batted balls allowed by Griffin Canning are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -5.5% +0.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph +2.6% -2.3% 18%

87 to 93 mph +2.0% -0.8% 19%

94 to 99 mph +2.4% +1.2% 24%

Above 100 mph -1.5% +1.6%

13.1% of Kerry Carpenter's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.7% higher than the league average. 12.5% of batted balls allowed by Griffin Canning are hit at this angle, which is 1.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.0% -1.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.1% -1.0% 8%

1 to 6° -2.4% 0.0% 18%

7 to 18° +4.9% -1.6% 15%

19 to 28° -1.3% -2.5% 11%

29 to 38° +1.7% +1.1% 7%

39 to 50° -1.2% +0.8% 8%

Above 50° -0.6% +4.4%

Kerry Carpenter has 9 plate appearances against Griffin Canning in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 8 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	9	8	2	0	0	2	1	1	0.250
Expected From Contact →			1.87	0.00	0.17	1.70			0.233

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-28	Walk
2024-08-28	Lineout		13%	14%	72%
2024-08-28	Single			91%	9%
2023-09-15	Pop Out				100%
2023-09-15	Single		3%	62%	35%
2023-09-15	Groundout			2%	98%
2023-07-25	Lineout
2023-07-25	Strikeout
2023-07-25	Groundout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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