Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Kerry Carpenter

matchup for Kyle Gibson

287th out of 436 (Worst 34%)

Kyle Gibson

matchup for Kerry Carpenter

150th out of 567 (Best 27%)

Strong advantage for Carpenter

Kerry Carpenter has a 32.9% chance of reaching base vs Kyle Gibson, which is 2.3% higher than Carpenter's typical expectations, and 1.3% lower than batters facing Gibson.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.9%	25.1%	4.1%	6.3%	14.7%	7.8%	23.5%
Carpenter	+2.3	+1.7	0.0	+0.7	+1.0	+0.6	-6.5
Gibson	-1.3	+1.6	+1.3	+1.1	-0.8	-2.9	+4.1

Kerry Carpenter is much better vs right-handed pitching. Kyle Gibson is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Carpenter has a B+ grade vs this particular release point.

Kyle Gibson throws a Sinker 28% of the time. Kerry Carpenter has a B grade against right-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (R)

28%

Slider (R)

19%

Cutter (R)

19%

4-Seam (R)

13%

Changeup (R)

13%

Curve (R)

22% of Kyle Gibson's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Kerry Carpenter has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 22%

+3%

Weak Challenge 9%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Meatball 7%

+0%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Strong Challenge 3%

-2%

Mid Challenge 8%

-3%

25% of Kyle Gibson's pitches are classified as Medium Velocity, which is 15% higher than the MLB average. Kerry Carpenter has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Velo 25%

+15%

Just Gravity 26%

+12%

16.5% of Kerry Carpenter's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 3.2% higher than the league average. Kyle Gibson strikes out 13.7% of the batters he faces, which is 2.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +3.2% -2.5% 5%

Walk -1.5% -0.1% 40%

In Play -1.7% +2.6% 39%

On Base -4.2% +3.0% 31%

Hit -2.6% +3.1% 14%

Single -3.4% +1.6% 13%

2B / 3B -2.7% +1.8% 3%

Home Run +3.5% -0.4%

39.5% of Kerry Carpenter's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.1% higher than the league average. Kyle Gibson induces Standard Grounders at a 36.9% rate, which is 2.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% +0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder +5.1% +2.5% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.5% +0.4% 14%

Low Screamer -4.9% -0.5% 9%

Rising Liner +1.0% +1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.7% 0.0% 3%

Likely Homer +2.7% -0.3% 1%

No Doubter +0.3% 0.0% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.9% -3.2% 3%

Pop up -2.1% -0.1%

22.8% of Kerry Carpenter's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.5% lower than the league average. 25.0% of batted balls allowed by Kyle Gibson are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -5.5% +0.2% 21%

75 to 86 mph +2.6% +1.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph +2.0% -1.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph +2.4% -0.3% 24%

Above 100 mph -1.5% +0.7%

13.1% of Kerry Carpenter's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.7% higher than the league average. 9.2% of batted balls allowed by Kyle Gibson are hit at this angle, which is 2.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.0% +2.6% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.1% +1.1% 8%

1 to 6° -2.4% -0.6% 18%

7 to 18° +4.9% +0.4% 15%

19 to 28° -1.3% +0.9% 11%

29 to 38° +1.7% -2.3% 7%

39 to 50° -1.2% -0.8% 8%

Above 50° -0.6% -1.4%

Kerry Carpenter has 9 plate appearances against Kyle Gibson in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 7 with a double and 2 walks

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	9	7	2	0	1	1	3	2	0.286
Expected From Contact →			1.47	0.00	0.17	1.30			0.210

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-04-30	Strikeout
2024-04-30	Walk
2024-04-30	Groundout			18%	81%
2023-04-27	Single			18%	82%
2023-04-27	Double		16%	60%	24%
2023-04-27	Strikeout
2023-04-22	Strikeout
2023-04-22	Walk
2023-04-22	Groundout			34%	65%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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