Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Jarren Duran

matchup for Griffin Canning

411st out of 436 (Worst 6%)

Griffin Canning

matchup for Jarren Duran

123rd out of 567 (Best 23%)

Extreme advantage for Duran

Jarren Duran has a 34.4% chance of reaching base vs Griffin Canning, which is 1.8% higher than Duran's typical expectations, and 1.3% higher than batters facing Canning.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	34.4%	23.9%	3.8%	7.2%	12.9%	10.5%	17.7%
Duran	+1.8	-0.2	+0.4	+1.3	-1.8	+2.0	-4.6
Canning	+1.3	+2.2	+0.9	+2.2	-1.0	-0.9	-3.8

Jarren Duran is better vs right-handed pitching. Griffin Canning is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Duran has a B+ grade vs this particular release point.

Griffin Canning throws a 4-seam fastball 39% of the time. Jarren Duran has a C grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

39%

Slider (R)

27%

Changeup (R)

21%

Curve (R)

11%

14% of Griffin Canning's pitches are classified as Non-Competitive, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Jarren Duran has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Non-Competitive 14%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Meatball 7%

+0%

Weak Challenge 8%

+0%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Mid Challenge 11%

Chaser 6%

Strong Challenge 5%

-1%

Edge Painter 17%

-1%

38% of Griffin Canning's pitches are classified as Medium Slow Velocity, which is 24% higher than the MLB average. Jarren Duran has an A- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Slow Velo 38%

+24%

Offspeed (R) 21%

+9%

Medium Break 28%

+9%

12.8% of Jarren Duran's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 3.0% lower than the league average. Griffin Canning strikes out 14.3% of the batters he faces, which is 1.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -3.0% -1.9% 5%

Walk -1.3% +0.3% 38%

In Play +4.3% +1.6% 39%

On Base +1.3% -0.8% 31%

Hit +2.6% -1.1% 14%

Single +0.9% -0.9% 13%

2B / 3B +1.3% -0.7% 3%

Home Run +0.4% +0.6%

40.9% of Jarren Duran's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.5% higher than the league average. Griffin Canning induces Standard Grounders at a 31.2% rate, which is 3.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.4% -0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder +6.5% -3.2% 7%

Hard Grounder +2.4% +1.2% 14%

Low Screamer -2.8% +0.6% 9%

Rising Liner -1.3% -0.2% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.7% -0.8% 3%

Likely Homer -1.6% +0.6% 1%

No Doubter -0.5% +0.6% 20%

Routine Flyout -3.0% +2.3% 3%

Pop up -0.7% -0.7%

28.0% of Jarren Duran's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.6% higher than the league average. 25.9% of batted balls allowed by Griffin Canning are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.6% +0.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.0% -2.3% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.3% -0.8% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.0% +1.2% 24%

Above 100 mph +3.6% +1.6%

9.0% of Jarren Duran's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.4% lower than the league average. 12.5% of batted balls allowed by Griffin Canning are hit at this angle, which is 1.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +4.4% -1.2% 12%

-10 to 0° +3.3% -1.0% 8%

1 to 6° +2.0% 0.0% 18%

7 to 18° -0.4% -1.6% 15%

19 to 28° -3.1% -2.5% 11%

29 to 38° -2.4% +1.1% 7%

39 to 50° -3.0% +0.8% 8%

Above 50° -0.7% +4.4%

Jarren Duran has 9 plate appearances against Griffin Canning in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 9 with 2 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	9	9	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			1.02	0.00	0.02	1.00			0.114

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-04-13	Groundout			46%	53%
2024-04-13	Groundout			8%	92%
2024-04-13	Sac Fly				100%
2024-04-05	Groundout			4%	96%
2024-04-05	Strikeout
2024-04-05	Pop Out				99%
2023-05-23	Groundout			1%	99%
2023-05-23	Groundout			40%	59%
2023-05-23	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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