Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Spencer Torkelson

matchup for Y. Yamamoto

239th out of 436 (Worst 45%)

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

matchup for S. Torkelson

369th out of 567 (Worst 35%)

Moderate advantage for Yamamoto

Spencer Torkelson has a 31.6% chance of reaching base vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto, which is 0.6% higher than Torkelson's typical expectations, and 2.4% higher than batters facing Yamamoto.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.6%	18.8%	2.3%	3.4%	13.1%	12.8%	35.7%
Torkelson	+0.6	-0.3	-0.6	-0.8	+1.1	+0.9	+2.6
Yamamoto	+2.4	-1.4	-0.1	-0.4	-1.0	+3.9	+7.9

Spencer Torkelson is much worse vs right-handed pitching. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Torkelson has a C- grade vs this particular release point.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto throws a 4-seam fastball 41% of the time. Spencer Torkelson has a C+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

41%

Splitter (R)

24%

Curve (R)

22%

Cutter (R)

7% of Yoshinobu Yamamoto's pitches are classified as Strong Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Spencer Torkelson has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Strong Challenge 7%

+2%

Mid Challenge 13%

+2%

Edge Painter 19%

+2%

Fringe Miss 14%

+2%

Weak Challenge 9%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

Meatball 3%

-3%

43% of Yoshinobu Yamamoto's pitches are classified as Medium Break Toward Third Base, which is 24% higher than the MLB average. Spencer Torkelson has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Break 43%

+24%

Extreme Drop 22%

+17%

Offspeed (R) 24%

+13%

Extreme Slow Velo 17%

+12%

18.1% of Spencer Torkelson's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 5.9% higher than the league average. Yoshinobu Yamamoto strikes out 19.9% of the batters he faces, which is 3.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

12%

Strikeout +5.9% +3.3% 3%

Walk +2.0% -1.8% 43%

In Play -8.0% -1.4% 39%

On Base -2.8% +1.2% 31%

Hit -4.8% +3.1% 14%

Single -2.8% +1.0% 13%

2B / 3B -2.4% +1.6% 3%

Home Run +0.4% +0.5%

31.8% of Spencer Torkelson's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 2.6% lower than the league average. Yoshinobu Yamamoto induces Standard Grounders at a 41.4% rate, which is 7.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.2% +1.5% 34%

Standard Grounder -2.6% +7.0% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.8% +3.1% 14%

Low Screamer -1.5% -2.7% 9%

Rising Liner -3.0% -0.4% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.9% +1.8% 3%

Likely Homer +2.5% -1.9% 1%

No Doubter +0.6% -1.2% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.4% -6.6% 3%

Pop up +2.7% -0.5%

30.0% of Spencer Torkelson's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.7% higher than the league average. 26.9% of batted balls allowed by Yoshinobu Yamamoto are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.3% +5.5% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.5% -0.8% 18%

87 to 93 mph -2.7% -7.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph -0.1% +0.4% 24%

Above 100 mph +5.7% +2.6%

13.4% of Spencer Torkelson's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.9% higher than the league average. 8.7% of batted balls allowed by Yoshinobu Yamamoto are hit at this angle, which is 2.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +0.7% +7.6% 12%

-10 to 0° +0.3% +5.9% 8%

1 to 6° -3.8% -2.9% 18%

7 to 18° -4.1% +0.4% 15%

19 to 28° -0.2% -3.8% 11%

29 to 38° +1.9% -2.7% 7%

39 to 50° -1.0% -1.1% 8%

Above 50° +6.1% -3.3%

Spencer Torkelson has 3 plate appearances against Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 3 with 2 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	1	0	0	1	2	0	0.333
Expected From Contact →			0.90	0.00	0.02	0.88			0.300

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2025-03-28	Single
2025-03-28	Strikeout
2025-03-28	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine Log InSubscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe