Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Spencer Torkelson

matchup for Carlos Rodon

137th out of 436 (Best 32%)

Carlos Rodon

matchup for S. Torkelson

482nd out of 564 (Worst 15%)

Strong advantage for Rodon

Spencer Torkelson has a 28.1% chance of reaching base vs Carlos Rodon, which is 2.9% lower than Torkelson's typical expectations, and 0.5% lower than batters facing Rodon.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	28.1%	17.6%	2.7%	3.6%	11.3%	10.5%	43.7%
Torkelson	-2.9	-1.5	-0.1	-0.6	-0.8	-1.4	+10.5
Rodon	-0.5	-2.8	-0.2	-0.5	-2.2	+2.3	+9.4

Spencer Torkelson is much better vs left-handed pitching. Carlos Rodon is left handed with a horizontal release toward the first base side. Torkelson has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Carlos Rodon throws a 4-seam fastball 56% of the time. Spencer Torkelson has an A grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

56%

Slider (L)

28%

Changeup (L)

Curve (L)

14% of Carlos Rodon's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Spencer Torkelson has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 14%

+3%

Strong Challenge 8%

+2%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Edge Painter 17%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Weak Challenge 7%

-2%

Meatball 3%

-3%

41% of Carlos Rodon's pitches are classified as Medium Break Toward Third Base, which is 22% higher than the MLB average. Spencer Torkelson has an A- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Break 41%

+22%

High Ride 32%

+22%

Very Fast Velo 19%

+16%

18.1% of Spencer Torkelson's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 5.9% higher than the league average. Carlos Rodon strikes out 19.6% of the batters he faces, which is 5.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

12%

Strikeout +5.9% +5.5% 3%

Walk +2.0% +0.2% 43%

In Play -8.0% -5.7% 39%

On Base -2.8% -2.4% 31%

Hit -4.8% -2.6% 14%

Single -2.8% -1.6% 13%

2B / 3B -2.4% -1.5% 3%

Home Run +0.4% +0.5%

31.8% of Spencer Torkelson's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 2.6% lower than the league average. Carlos Rodon induces Standard Grounders at a 29.3% rate, which is 5.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.2% +0.6% 34%

Standard Grounder -2.6% -5.1% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.8% +0.2% 14%

Low Screamer -1.5% +2.3% 9%

Rising Liner -3.0% -0.7% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.9% -1.2% 3%

Likely Homer +2.5% +0.6% 1%

No Doubter +0.6% +1.1% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.4% +1.5% 3%

Pop up +2.7% +0.7%

30.0% of Spencer Torkelson's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.7% higher than the league average. 25.7% of batted balls allowed by Carlos Rodon are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.3% -3.1% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.5% +1.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph -2.7% -0.3% 19%

94 to 99 mph -0.1% +0.9% 24%

Above 100 mph +5.7% +1.4%

13.4% of Spencer Torkelson's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.9% higher than the league average. 10.9% of batted balls allowed by Carlos Rodon are hit at this angle, which is 0.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +0.7% -3.0% 12%

-10 to 0° +0.3% -1.2% 8%

1 to 6° -3.8% +0.3% 18%

7 to 18° -4.1% -0.7% 15%

19 to 28° -0.2% +0.3% 11%

29 to 38° +1.9% -0.5% 7%

39 to 50° -1.0% +3.0% 8%

Above 50° +6.1% +1.9%

Spencer Torkelson has 7 plate appearances against Carlos Rodon in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 7 with a home run and a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	7	7	2	1	1	0	2	0	0.286
Expected From Contact →			2.06	0.94	0.60	0.52			0.295

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-17	Double		32%	51%	17%
2024-08-17	Strikeout
2023-09-07	Home Run	39%	22%		39%
2023-09-07	Flyout	55%	5%		40%
2022-06-28	Pop Out				99%
2022-06-28	Strikeout
2022-06-28	Flyout				99%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine Log InSubscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe