Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Spencer Torkelson

matchup for Aaron Nola

32nd out of 436 (Best 8%)

Aaron Nola

matchup for S. Torkelson

491st out of 567 (Worst 14%)

Strong advantage for Nola

Spencer Torkelson has a 26.8% chance of reaching base vs Aaron Nola, which is 4.3% lower than Torkelson's typical expectations, and 2.7% lower than batters facing Nola.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	26.8%	17.5%	2.9%	4.3%	10.3%	9.2%	43.0%
Torkelson	-4.3	-1.6	+0.1	+0.1	-1.8	-2.7	+9.8
Nola	-2.7	-4.8	0.0	-2.0	-2.8	+2.2	+12.1

Spencer Torkelson is much worse vs right-handed pitching. Aaron Nola is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Torkelson has a D+ grade vs this particular release point.

Aaron Nola throws a Kn-Curve 30% of the time. Spencer Torkelson hasn't faced this pitch from right handers very often

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Kn-Curve (R)

30%

4-Seam (R)

30%

Sinker (R)

20%

Changeup (R)

12%

Cutter (R)

8% of Aaron Nola's pitches are classified as Chasers, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Spencer Torkelson has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Chaser 8%

+2%

Edge Painter 19%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

+0%

Weak Challenge 8%

Likely Ball 19%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

26% of Aaron Nola's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 21% higher than the MLB average. Spencer Torkelson has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 26%

+21%

Extreme Slow Velo 23%

+18%

Large Break 22%

+18%

18.1% of Spencer Torkelson's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 5.9% higher than the league average. Aaron Nola strikes out 20.3% of the batters he faces, which is 6.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

12%

Strikeout +5.9% +6.3% 3%

Walk +2.0% -2.8% 43%

In Play -8.0% -3.5% 39%

On Base -2.8% -4.8% 31%

Hit -4.8% -2.0% 14%

Single -2.8% -0.8% 13%

2B / 3B -2.4% -0.7% 3%

Home Run +0.4% -0.5%

31.8% of Spencer Torkelson's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 2.6% lower than the league average. Aaron Nola induces Standard Grounders at a 37.3% rate, which is 2.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.2% 0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder -2.6% +2.9% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.8% -0.6% 14%

Low Screamer -1.5% -1.6% 9%

Rising Liner -3.0% +0.5% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.9% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer +2.5% +0.1% 1%

No Doubter +0.6% +0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.4% -0.4% 3%

Pop up +2.7% -0.7%

30.0% of Spencer Torkelson's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.7% higher than the league average. 23.6% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Nola are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.3% +0.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.5% -0.2% 18%

87 to 93 mph -2.7% +2.2% 19%

94 to 99 mph -0.1% -1.9% 24%

Above 100 mph +5.7% -0.7%

13.4% of Spencer Torkelson's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.9% higher than the league average. 10.9% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Nola are hit at this angle, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +0.7% -0.8% 12%

-10 to 0° +0.3% +1.8% 8%

1 to 6° -3.8% +0.2% 18%

7 to 18° -4.1% +0.8% 15%

19 to 28° -0.2% +0.1% 11%

29 to 38° +1.9% -0.6% 7%

39 to 50° -1.0% -0.2% 8%

Above 50° +6.1% -1.3%

Spencer Torkelson has 3 plate appearances against Aaron Nola in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 3 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			1.07	0.00	0.73	0.34			0.357

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-06-05	Strikeout
2023-06-05	Lineout		54%	22%	24%
2023-06-05	Groundout		19%	12%	69%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine Log InSubscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe