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Spencer Torkelson

matchup for Kyle Gibson

117th out of 436 (Best 28%)

Kyle Gibson

matchup for S. Torkelson

119th out of 567 (Best 22%)

Moderate advantage for Torkelson

Spencer Torkelson has a 33.9% chance of reaching base vs Kyle Gibson, which is 2.9% higher than Torkelson's typical expectations, and 0.3% higher than batters facing Gibson.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	33.9%	19.6%	2.8%	4.4%	12.4%	14.3%	26.6%
Torkelson	+2.9	+0.5	0.0	+0.2	+0.3	+2.4	-6.6
Gibson	-0.3	-3.9	0.0	-0.8	-3.0	+3.6	+7.2

Spencer Torkelson is much worse vs right-handed pitching. Kyle Gibson is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Torkelson has a C grade vs this particular release point.

Kyle Gibson throws a Sinker 28% of the time. Spencer Torkelson has a C- grade against right-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (R)

28%

Slider (R)

19%

Cutter (R)

19%

4-Seam (R)

13%

Changeup (R)

13%

Curve (R)

22% of Kyle Gibson's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Spencer Torkelson has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 22%

+3%

Weak Challenge 9%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Meatball 7%

+0%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Strong Challenge 3%

-2%

Mid Challenge 8%

-3%

25% of Kyle Gibson's pitches are classified as Medium Velocity, which is 15% higher than the MLB average. Spencer Torkelson has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Velo 25%

+15%

Just Gravity 26%

+12%

18.1% of Spencer Torkelson's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 5.9% higher than the league average. Kyle Gibson strikes out 13.7% of the batters he faces, which is 2.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

12%

Strikeout +5.9% -2.5% 3%

Walk +2.0% -0.1% 43%

In Play -8.0% +2.6% 39%

On Base -2.8% +3.0% 31%

Hit -4.8% +3.1% 14%

Single -2.8% +1.6% 13%

2B / 3B -2.4% +1.8% 3%

Home Run +0.4% -0.4%

31.8% of Spencer Torkelson's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 2.6% lower than the league average. Kyle Gibson induces Standard Grounders at a 36.9% rate, which is 2.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.2% +0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder -2.6% +2.5% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.8% +0.4% 14%

Low Screamer -1.5% -0.5% 9%

Rising Liner -3.0% +1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.9% 0.0% 3%

Likely Homer +2.5% -0.3% 1%

No Doubter +0.6% 0.0% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.4% -3.2% 3%

Pop up +2.7% -0.1%

30.0% of Spencer Torkelson's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.7% higher than the league average. 25.0% of batted balls allowed by Kyle Gibson are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.3% +0.2% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.5% +1.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph -2.7% -1.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph -0.1% -0.3% 24%

Above 100 mph +5.7% +0.7%

13.4% of Spencer Torkelson's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.9% higher than the league average. 9.2% of batted balls allowed by Kyle Gibson are hit at this angle, which is 2.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +0.7% +2.6% 12%

-10 to 0° +0.3% +1.1% 8%

1 to 6° -3.8% -0.6% 18%

7 to 18° -4.1% +0.4% 15%

19 to 28° -0.2% +0.9% 11%

29 to 38° +1.9% -2.3% 7%

39 to 50° -1.0% -0.8% 8%

Above 50° +6.1% -1.4%

Spencer Torkelson has 9 plate appearances against Kyle Gibson in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 9 with 3 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	9	9	2	0	0	2	3	0	0.222
Expected From Contact →			2.75	0.27	0.53	1.95			0.306

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-04-30	Strikeout
2024-04-30	Single			75%	25%
2024-04-30	Groundout			14%	86%
2023-04-27	Flyout	1%	5%		94%
2023-04-27	Groundout			16%	84%
2023-04-27	Single		2%	89%	9%
2023-04-22	Strikeout
2023-04-22	Strikeout
2023-04-22	Flyout	26%	46%		28%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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