Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Ceddanne Rafaela

matchup for Max Fried

25th out of 436 (Best 7%)

Max Fried

matchup for C. Rafaela

376th out of 567 (Worst 34%)

Strong advantage for Fried

Ceddanne Rafaela has a 25.9% chance of reaching base vs Max Fried, which is 0.0% higher than Rafaela's typical expectations, and 6.5% lower than batters facing Fried.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	25.9%	21.3%	2.1%	4.7%	14.5%	4.6%	32.2%
Rafaela	+0.0	-0.3	-0.5	-0.6	+0.9	+0.3	+2.4
Fried	-6.5	-1.8	0.0	+0.1	-1.9	-4.7	+5.8

Ceddanne Rafaela is worse vs left-handed pitching. Max Fried is left handed with an over-the-top delivery. Rafaela doesn't have many appearances against this particular release point.

Max Fried throws a 4-seam fastball 35% of the time. Ceddanne Rafaela has an F grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

35%

Curve (L)

23%

Slider (L)

17%

Sinker (L)

13%

Changeup (L)

11%

13% of Max Fried's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Ceddanne Rafaela has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 13%

+4%

Likely Ball 21%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Non-Competitive 10%

-2%

Meatball 1%

-4%

23% of Max Fried's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 19% higher than the MLB average. Ceddanne Rafaela hasn't faced this type of pitch enough to assign a grade.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 23%

+19%

Slow Lob 18%

+14%

Medium Break 20%

+11%

Breaking (L) 40%

+11%

16.6% of Ceddanne Rafaela's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 3.3% higher than the league average. Max Fried strikes out 18.3% of the batters he faces, which is 3.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +3.3% +3.0% 7%

Walk -6.1% -1.8% 38%

In Play +2.8% -1.2% 39%

On Base -4.1% +0.3% 31%

Hit +2.0% +2.0% 14%

Single +0.3% +1.7% 13%

2B / 3B +0.8% +1.7% 3%

Home Run +0.9% -1.4%

34.8% of Ceddanne Rafaela's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.4% higher than the league average. Max Fried induces Standard Grounders at a 45.7% rate, which is 11.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +2.7% +0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.4% +11.3% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.3% +0.3% 14%

Low Screamer +0.2% -1.3% 9%

Rising Liner +1.5% +0.2% 4%

Maybe Homer -1.4% -1.6% 3%

Likely Homer -1.4% -1.3% 1%

No Doubter +0.7% -0.6% 20%

Routine Flyout -1.8% -6.5% 3%

Pop up +1.3% -0.7%

19.2% of Ceddanne Rafaela's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.1% lower than the league average. 20.8% of batted balls allowed by Max Fried are hit at above 100 mph, which is 3.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +7.8% +4.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.7% +3.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph -1.5% -3.9% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.5% +0.0% 24%

Above 100 mph -5.1% -3.5%

11.0% of Ceddanne Rafaela's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.4% lower than the league average. 10.1% of batted balls allowed by Max Fried are hit at this angle, which is 1.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +2.5% +8.9% 12%

-10 to 0° -1.1% +2.0% 8%

1 to 6° -3.5% -0.2% 18%

7 to 18° +1.5% +0.4% 15%

19 to 28° +1.7% -3.5% 11%

29 to 38° -0.4% -1.3% 7%

39 to 50° -1.2% -2.3% 8%

Above 50° +0.5% -3.9%

Ceddanne Rafaela has 3 plate appearances against Max Fried in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 3 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.84	0.17	0.64	0.02			0.280

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-06-04	Strikeout
2024-06-04	Lineout	17%	64%	2%	16%
2024-06-04	Field Error

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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