Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Ceddanne Rafaela

matchup for Marcus Stroman

61st out of 436 (Best 15%)

Marcus Stroman

matchup for C. Rafaela

14th out of 567 (Best 3%)

Strong advantage for Rafaela

Ceddanne Rafaela has a 32.4% chance of reaching base vs Marcus Stroman, which is 6.6% higher than Rafaela's typical expectations, and 5.2% lower than batters facing Stroman.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.4%	28.8%	2.9%	6.6%	19.3%	3.6%	20.8%
Rafaela	+6.6	+7.2	+0.3	+1.3	+5.6	-0.7	-9.0
Stroman	-5.2	0.0	+0.2	+0.8	-1.0	-5.1	+2.7

Ceddanne Rafaela is better vs right-handed pitching. Marcus Stroman is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Rafaela has an F grade vs this particular release point.

Marcus Stroman throws a Sinker 40% of the time. Ceddanne Rafaela has a D+ grade against right-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (R)

40%

Slider (R)

18%

Cutter (R)

15%

Splitter (R)

11%

Curve (R)

10%

4-Seam (R)

22% of Marcus Stroman's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Ceddanne Rafaela has a D- grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 22%

+3%

Weak Challenge 11%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+0%

Fringe Miss 12%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Mid Challenge 9%

-2%

37% of Marcus Stroman's pitches are classified as Small Drop, which is 24% higher than the MLB average. Ceddanne Rafaela has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Small Drop 37%

+24%

Medium Velo 29%

+18%

16.6% of Ceddanne Rafaela's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 3.3% higher than the league average. Marcus Stroman strikes out 13.5% of the batters he faces, which is 3.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +3.3% -3.1% 7%

Walk -6.1% -0.8% 38%

In Play +2.8% +3.9% 39%

On Base -4.1% +3.0% 31%

Hit +2.0% +3.8% 14%

Single +0.3% +2.4% 13%

2B / 3B +0.8% +2.4% 3%

Home Run +0.9% -1.1%

34.8% of Ceddanne Rafaela's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.4% higher than the league average. Marcus Stroman induces Standard Grounders at a 43.6% rate, which is 9.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +2.7% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.4% +9.2% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.3% +4.1% 14%

Low Screamer +0.2% -1.9% 9%

Rising Liner +1.5% +0.0% 4%

Maybe Homer -1.4% -1.3% 3%

Likely Homer -1.4% -1.4% 1%

No Doubter +0.7% -0.7% 20%

Routine Flyout -1.8% -6.1% 3%

Pop up +1.3% -1.9%

19.2% of Ceddanne Rafaela's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.1% lower than the league average. 28.8% of batted balls allowed by Marcus Stroman are hit at above 100 mph, which is 4.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +7.8% -1.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.7% +0.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -1.5% -2.2% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.5% -1.0% 24%

Above 100 mph -5.1% +4.4%

11.0% of Ceddanne Rafaela's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.4% lower than the league average. 7.4% of batted balls allowed by Marcus Stroman are hit at this angle, which is 4.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +2.5% +7.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -1.1% +3.2% 8%

1 to 6° -3.5% +2.6% 18%

7 to 18° +1.5% +0.5% 15%

19 to 28° +1.7% -2.6% 11%

29 to 38° -0.4% -4.0% 7%

39 to 50° -1.2% -2.6% 8%

Above 50° +0.5% -4.4%

Ceddanne Rafaela has 4 plate appearances against Marcus Stroman in the last 3 years. He is 3 for 4.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	4	4	3	0	0	3	0	0	0.750
Expected From Contact →			1.88	0.00	0.02	1.86			0.471

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-07-27	Single		2%	70%	28%
2024-07-27	Groundout			17%	83%
2024-06-16	Single			22%	77%
2024-06-16	Single			76%	24%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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