Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Ezequiel Tovar

matchup for Luis Castillo

251st out of 436 (Worst 43%)

Luis Castillo

matchup for Ezequiel Tovar

231st out of 567 (Best 42%)

Moderate advantage for Tovar

Ezequiel Tovar has a 29.3% chance of reaching base vs Luis Castillo, which is 0.4% higher than Tovar's typical expectations, and 1.5% lower than batters facing Castillo.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	29.3%	25.8%	3.4%	7.8%	14.6%	3.5%	28.5%
Tovar	+0.4	+0.9	+0.1	+1.5	-0.6	-0.5	+0.0
Castillo	-1.5	+2.6	+0.4	+2.7	-0.5	-4.1	+3.9

Ezequiel Tovar is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Luis Castillo is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Tovar has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Luis Castillo throws a 4-seam fastball 40% of the time. Ezequiel Tovar has a D- grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

40%

Slider (R)

21%

Sinker (R)

20%

Changeup (R)

19%

6% of Luis Castillo's pitches are classified as Strong Challenges, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Ezequiel Tovar hasn't faced this type of pitch very often.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Weak Challenge 8%

Likely Ball 19%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Meatball 4%

-3%

43% of Luis Castillo's pitches are classified as Extreme Break Toward Third Base, which is 28% higher than the MLB average. Ezequiel Tovar has a C- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Break 43%

+28%

Very Fast Velo 29%

+21%

Medium Drop 24%

+11%

17.2% of Ezequiel Tovar's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 4.4% higher than the league average. Luis Castillo strikes out 20.3% of the batters he faces, which is 7.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

12%

Strikeout +4.4% +7.2% 6%

Walk -5.2% -1.4% 39%

In Play +0.8% -5.8% 39%

On Base -6.2% -5.8% 31%

Hit -1.0% -4.4% 14%

Single -1.4% -2.1% 13%

2B / 3B -1.3% -1.8% 3%

Home Run +1.7% -0.5%

28.5% of Ezequiel Tovar's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.9% lower than the league average. Luis Castillo induces Standard Grounders at a 37.0% rate, which is 2.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.4% -0.4% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.9% +2.6% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.1% +0.5% 14%

Low Screamer -0.2% +0.8% 9%

Rising Liner -1.8% -0.2% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.7% +0.9% 3%

Likely Homer +1.5% -0.2% 1%

No Doubter -0.5% -0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout +5.9% -3.8% 3%

Pop up +1.2% 0.0%

22.7% of Ezequiel Tovar's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.6% lower than the league average. 25.4% of batted balls allowed by Luis Castillo are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +2.0% +1.8% 21%

75 to 86 mph -3.2% +0.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph +0.6% -0.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph +2.2% -3.3% 24%

Above 100 mph -1.6% +1.1%

10.3% of Ezequiel Tovar's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.1% lower than the league average. 11.4% of batted balls allowed by Luis Castillo are hit at this angle, which is 0.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.5% +1.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.5% +1.9% 8%

1 to 6° +0.5% -0.8% 18%

7 to 18° -1.5% -1.0% 15%

19 to 28° +2.7% -1.5% 11%

29 to 38° -1.1% 0.0% 7%

39 to 50° +4.1% -1.2% 8%

Above 50° +1.3% +1.4%

Ezequiel Tovar has 3 plate appearances against Luis Castillo in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 3 with 2 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00			0.001

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-04-20	Flyout				100%
2024-04-20	Strikeout
2024-04-20	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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