Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Ezequiel Tovar

matchup for Seth Lugo

261st out of 436 (Worst 40%)

Seth Lugo

matchup for Ezequiel Tovar

183rd out of 567 (Best 33%)

Moderate advantage for Tovar

Ezequiel Tovar has a 30.9% chance of reaching base vs Seth Lugo, which is 2.0% higher than Tovar's typical expectations, and 1.6% lower than batters facing Lugo.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.9%	27.5%	3.9%	5.8%	17.8%	3.4%	26.9%
Tovar	+2.0	+2.7	+0.7	-0.6	+2.6	-0.7	-1.6
Lugo	-1.6	+3.6	+0.8	+0.9	+2.0	-5.2	+2.0

Ezequiel Tovar is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Seth Lugo is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Tovar has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Seth Lugo throws a 4-seam fastball 29% of the time. Ezequiel Tovar has a D- grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

29%

Curve (R)

28%

Sinker (R)

17%

Slider (R)

13%

Changeup (R)

10% of Seth Lugo's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Ezequiel Tovar has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

25% of Seth Lugo's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 20% higher than the MLB average. Ezequiel Tovar has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 25%

+20%

Large Break 18%

+13%

Extreme Slow Velo 16%

+11%

Breaking (R) 41%

+10%

17.2% of Ezequiel Tovar's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 4.4% higher than the league average. Seth Lugo strikes out 16.5% of the batters he faces, which is 0.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

12%

Strikeout +4.4% +0.8% 6%

Walk -5.2% -2.3% 39%

In Play +0.8% +1.4% 39%

On Base -6.2% -0.4% 31%

Hit -1.0% +1.9% 14%

Single -1.4% +0.7% 13%

2B / 3B -1.3% +1.1% 3%

Home Run +1.7% +0.1%

28.5% of Ezequiel Tovar's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.9% lower than the league average. Seth Lugo induces Standard Grounders at a 36.3% rate, which is 1.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.4% +1.4% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.9% +1.9% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.1% -1.6% 14%

Low Screamer -0.2% +0.5% 9%

Rising Liner -1.8% -1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.7% -0.5% 3%

Likely Homer +1.5% +2.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.5% -0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout +5.9% -0.1% 3%

Pop up +1.2% -2.2%

22.7% of Ezequiel Tovar's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.6% lower than the league average. 22.7% of batted balls allowed by Seth Lugo are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +2.0% +1.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph -3.2% +0.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph +0.6% -1.4% 19%

94 to 99 mph +2.2% +0.8% 24%

Above 100 mph -1.6% -1.6%

10.3% of Ezequiel Tovar's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.1% lower than the league average. 14.0% of batted balls allowed by Seth Lugo are hit at this angle, which is 2.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.5% +2.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.5% -0.2% 8%

1 to 6° +0.5% +1.3% 18%

7 to 18° -1.5% -2.0% 15%

19 to 28° +2.7% -1.4% 11%

29 to 38° -1.1% +2.6% 7%

39 to 50° +4.1% +0.4% 8%

Above 50° +1.3% -2.9%

Ezequiel Tovar has 11 plate appearances against Seth Lugo in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 10 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	11	10	2	0	0	2	3	1	0.200
Expected From Contact →			2.64	0.02	0.68	1.95			0.264

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-07-06	Lineout		29%	27%	43%
2024-07-06	Groundout		31%	24%	45%
2024-07-06	Groundout			15%	85%
2023-09-20	Strikeout
2023-09-20	Single			47%	52%
2023-09-20	Single			80%	20%
2023-07-31	Flyout	1%	6%		92%
2023-07-31	Walk
2023-07-31	Strikeout
2023-04-02	Strikeout
2023-04-02	Flyout				99%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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