Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Ezequiel Tovar

matchup for Aaron Nola

205th out of 436 (Best 48%)

Aaron Nola

matchup for Ezequiel Tovar

369th out of 567 (Worst 35%)

Moderate advantage for Nola

Ezequiel Tovar has a 27.7% chance of reaching base vs Aaron Nola, which is 1.2% lower than Tovar's typical expectations, and 1.8% lower than batters facing Nola.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	27.7%	24.8%	3.2%	7.8%	13.8%	2.9%	36.0%
Tovar	-1.2	0.0	-0.1	+1.5	-1.4	-1.1	+7.6
Nola	-1.8	+2.4	+0.2	+1.6	+0.7	-4.2	+5.1

Ezequiel Tovar is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Aaron Nola is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Tovar has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Aaron Nola throws a Kn-Curve 30% of the time. Ezequiel Tovar hasn't faced this pitch from right handers very often

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Kn-Curve (R)

30%

4-Seam (R)

30%

Sinker (R)

20%

Changeup (R)

12%

Cutter (R)

8% of Aaron Nola's pitches are classified as Chasers, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Ezequiel Tovar has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Chaser 8%

+2%

Edge Painter 19%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

+0%

Weak Challenge 8%

Likely Ball 19%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

26% of Aaron Nola's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 21% higher than the MLB average. Ezequiel Tovar has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 26%

+21%

Extreme Slow Velo 23%

+18%

Large Break 22%

+18%

17.2% of Ezequiel Tovar's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 4.4% higher than the league average. Aaron Nola strikes out 20.3% of the batters he faces, which is 6.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

12%

Strikeout +4.4% +6.3% 6%

Walk -5.2% -2.8% 39%

In Play +0.8% -3.5% 39%

On Base -6.2% -4.8% 31%

Hit -1.0% -2.0% 14%

Single -1.4% -0.8% 13%

2B / 3B -1.3% -0.7% 3%

Home Run +1.7% -0.5%

28.5% of Ezequiel Tovar's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.9% lower than the league average. Aaron Nola induces Standard Grounders at a 37.3% rate, which is 2.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.4% 0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.9% +2.9% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.1% -0.6% 14%

Low Screamer -0.2% -1.6% 9%

Rising Liner -1.8% +0.5% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.7% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer +1.5% +0.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.5% +0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout +5.9% -0.4% 3%

Pop up +1.2% -0.7%

22.7% of Ezequiel Tovar's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.6% lower than the league average. 23.6% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Nola are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +2.0% +0.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -3.2% -0.2% 18%

87 to 93 mph +0.6% +2.2% 19%

94 to 99 mph +2.2% -1.9% 24%

Above 100 mph -1.6% -0.7%

10.3% of Ezequiel Tovar's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.1% lower than the league average. 10.9% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Nola are hit at this angle, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.5% -0.8% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.5% +1.8% 8%

1 to 6° +0.5% +0.2% 18%

7 to 18° -1.5% +0.8% 15%

19 to 28° +2.7% +0.1% 11%

29 to 38° -1.1% -0.6% 7%

39 to 50° +4.1% -0.2% 8%

Above 50° +1.3% -1.3%

Ezequiel Tovar has 11 plate appearances against Aaron Nola in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 11 with 6 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	11	11	1	0	0	1	6	0	0.091
Expected From Contact →			1.22	0.00	0.42	0.80			0.111

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-05-25	Strikeout
2024-05-25	Strikeout
2024-05-25	Single		42%	50%	8%
2024-05-25	Caught Stealing 2B
2024-04-15	Groundout			29%	70%
2024-04-15	Strikeout
2024-04-15	Strikeout
2023-05-14	Pickoff Caught Stealing 2B
2023-05-14	Flyout				100%
2023-05-14	Strikeout
2023-05-14	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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