Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Ezequiel Tovar

matchup for Martin Perez

278th out of 436 (Worst 36%)

Martin Perez

matchup for Ezequiel Tovar

70th out of 567 (Best 13%)

Strong advantage for Tovar

Ezequiel Tovar has a 32.7% chance of reaching base vs Martin Perez, which is 3.8% higher than Tovar's typical expectations, and 2.0% lower than batters facing Perez.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.7%	28.6%	3.5%	7.9%	17.2%	4.0%	20.3%
Tovar	+3.8	+3.8	+0.2	+1.6	+2.0	0.0	-8.2
Perez	-2.0	+3.3	+0.4	+2.6	+0.3	-5.3	+1.9

Ezequiel Tovar is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Martin Perez is left handed with an over-the-top delivery. Tovar has an A- grade vs this particular release point.

Martin Perez throws a Sinker 34% of the time. Ezequiel Tovar hasn't faced this pitch from left handers very often.

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (L)

34%

Changeup (L)

25%

Cutter (L)

25%

4-Seam (L)

Curve (L)

22% of Martin Perez's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Ezequiel Tovar has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 22%

+2%

Edge Painter 19%

+2%

Fringe Miss 15%

+2%

Weak Challenge 9%

+0%

Meatball 6%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Mid Challenge 9%

-2%

Strong Challenge 3%

-2%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

62% of Martin Perez's pitches are classified as Low Ride, which is 38% higher than the MLB average. Ezequiel Tovar has a D grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Low Ride 62%

+38%

Extreme Break 34%

+19%

Offspeed (L) 25%

+13%

Fastball (L) 67%

+12%

Medium Velo 24%

+10%

17.2% of Ezequiel Tovar's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 4.4% higher than the league average. Martin Perez strikes out 11.9% of the batters he faces, which is 6.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

12%

Strikeout +4.4% -6.1% 6%

Walk -5.2% -0.3% 39%

In Play +0.8% +6.4% 39%

On Base -6.2% +5.9% 31%

Hit -1.0% +6.3% 14%

Single -1.4% +3.5% 13%

2B / 3B -1.3% +3.3% 3%

Home Run +1.7% -0.6%

28.5% of Ezequiel Tovar's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.9% lower than the league average. Martin Perez induces Standard Grounders at a 38.9% rate, which is 4.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.4% 0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.9% +4.5% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.1% +0.3% 14%

Low Screamer -0.2% +0.4% 9%

Rising Liner -1.8% +0.4% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.7% -0.6% 3%

Likely Homer +1.5% -0.5% 1%

No Doubter -0.5% +0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout +5.9% -3.7% 3%

Pop up +1.2% -0.9%

22.7% of Ezequiel Tovar's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.6% lower than the league average. 25.2% of batted balls allowed by Martin Perez are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +2.0% +0.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -3.2% +2.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph +0.6% -1.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph +2.2% -2.8% 24%

Above 100 mph -1.6% +0.9%

10.3% of Ezequiel Tovar's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.1% lower than the league average. 10.3% of batted balls allowed by Martin Perez are hit at this angle, which is 1.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.5% +2.9% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.5% +1.3% 8%

1 to 6° +0.5% +0.6% 18%

7 to 18° -1.5% +0.2% 15%

19 to 28° +2.7% -1.4% 11%

29 to 38° -1.1% -1.1% 7%

39 to 50° +4.1% -0.3% 8%

Above 50° +1.3% -2.1%

Ezequiel Tovar has 9 plate appearances against Martin Perez in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 9 with 4 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	9	9	1	0	0	1	4	0	0.111
Expected From Contact →			1.86	0.00	0.04	1.82			0.206

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-03	Flyout				100%
2024-08-03	Groundout			7%	93%
2024-08-03	Strikeout
2024-05-03	Single			94%	6%
2024-05-03	Strikeout
2024-05-03	Lineout			16%	83%
2023-05-19	Lineout		2%	65%	33%
2023-05-19	Strikeout
2023-05-19	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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