Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Ezequiel Tovar

matchup for Lance Lynn

263rd out of 436 (Worst 40%)

Lance Lynn

matchup for Ezequiel Tovar

118th out of 567 (Best 22%)

Strong advantage for Tovar

Ezequiel Tovar has a 31.4% chance of reaching base vs Lance Lynn, which is 2.5% higher than Tovar's typical expectations, and 1.5% lower than batters facing Lynn.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.4%	27.7%	3.5%	8.2%	16.0%	3.7%	23.8%
Tovar	+2.5	+2.9	+0.3	+1.8	+0.8	-0.4	-4.6
Lynn	-1.5	+3.6	+0.4	+2.4	+0.8	-5.1	+4.1

Ezequiel Tovar is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Lance Lynn is right handed with an extreme release toward the third base side. Tovar has a D grade vs this particular release point.

Lance Lynn throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Ezequiel Tovar has a D- grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

44%

Cutter (R)

25%

Sinker (R)

16%

Curve (R)

Changeup (R)

7% of Lance Lynn's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Ezequiel Tovar has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+0%

Likely Ball 20%

+0%

Mid Challenge 11%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

Non-Competitive 13%

Fringe Miss 12%

Weak Challenge 7%

-1%

85% of Lance Lynn's pitches are classified as Fastball Pitches, which is 32% higher than the MLB average. Ezequiel Tovar has a D+ grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Fastball (R) 85%

+32%

Medium Fast Velo 30%

+15%

Low Ride 36%

+12%

Small Break 19%

+10%

17.2% of Ezequiel Tovar's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 4.4% higher than the league average. Lance Lynn strikes out 15.4% of the batters he faces, which is 1.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

12%

Strikeout +4.4% +1.3% 6%

Walk -5.2% -1.6% 39%

In Play +0.8% +0.3% 39%

On Base -6.2% -2.3% 31%

Hit -1.0% -0.6% 14%

Single -1.4% -0.1% 13%

2B / 3B -1.3% -0.1% 3%

Home Run +1.7% -0.4%

28.5% of Ezequiel Tovar's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.9% lower than the league average. Lance Lynn induces Standard Grounders at a 32.0% rate, which is 2.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.4% -0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.9% -2.4% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.1% -1.8% 14%

Low Screamer -0.2% +2.4% 9%

Rising Liner -1.8% -0.4% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.7% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer +1.5% +0.7% 1%

No Doubter -0.5% -0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout +5.9% +0.7% 3%

Pop up +1.2% +1.6%

22.7% of Ezequiel Tovar's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.6% lower than the league average. 23.9% of batted balls allowed by Lance Lynn are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +2.0% +0.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph -3.2% +1.8% 18%

87 to 93 mph +0.6% -0.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph +2.2% -1.2% 24%

Above 100 mph -1.6% -0.4%

10.3% of Ezequiel Tovar's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.1% lower than the league average. 10.9% of batted balls allowed by Lance Lynn are hit at this angle, which is 0.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.5% -2.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.5% -0.3% 8%

1 to 6° +0.5% -2.7% 18%

7 to 18° -1.5% +1.7% 15%

19 to 28° +2.7% +0.4% 11%

29 to 38° -1.1% -0.5% 7%

39 to 50° +4.1% +1.2% 8%

Above 50° +1.3% +2.4%

Ezequiel Tovar has 6 plate appearances against Lance Lynn in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 6 with 2 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	6	1	0	0	1	2	0	0.167
Expected From Contact →			1.11	0.01	0.02	1.07			0.184

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-06-07	Flyout		2%		97%
2024-06-07	Groundout			16%	84%
2024-06-07	Strikeout
2023-08-11	Strikeout
2023-08-11	Pop Out			2%	98%
2023-08-11	Single			89%	11%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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