Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Miguel Vargas

matchup for Carson Fulmer

115th out of 436 (Best 27%)

Carson Fulmer

matchup for Miguel Vargas

132nd out of 567 (Best 24%)

Moderate advantage for Vargas

Miguel Vargas has a 32.9% chance of reaching base vs Carson Fulmer, which is 2.6% higher than Vargas's typical expectations, and 0.5% lower than batters facing Fulmer.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.9%	19.0%	2.8%	5.0%	11.2%	13.9%	25.7%
Vargas	+2.6	+1.2	+0.3	+0.4	+0.4	+1.4	-3.3
Fulmer	-0.5	-4.8	-0.3	-0.5	-4.0	+4.3	+4.1

Miguel Vargas is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Carson Fulmer is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Vargas has an F grade vs this particular release point.

Carson Fulmer throws a 4-seam fastball 37% of the time. Miguel Vargas has an F grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

37%

Changeup (R)

20%

Cutter (R)

15%

Sinker (R)

11%

Curve (R)

Slider (R)

8% of Carson Fulmer's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Miguel Vargas hasn't faced this type of pitch very often.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 8%

+2%

Non-Competitive 14%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+0%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Edge Painter 17%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Weak Challenge 7%

-1%

Mid Challenge 9%

-2%

33% of Carson Fulmer's pitches are classified as Medium Fast Velocity, which is 18% higher than the MLB average. Miguel Vargas has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Fast Velo 33%

+18%

Offspeed (R) 20%

+9%

Fastball (R) 62%

+8%

14.2% of Miguel Vargas's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.7% lower than the league average. Carson Fulmer strikes out 13.9% of the batters he faces, which is 2.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout -0.7% -2.6% 3%

Walk +2.3% +2.5% 40%

In Play -1.6% +0.1% 39%

On Base -6.1% +3.9% 31%

Hit -8.4% +1.4% 14%

Single -4.2% +0.6% 13%

2B / 3B -3.6% +0.6% 3%

Home Run -0.6% +0.1%

28.4% of Miguel Vargas's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.0% lower than the league average. Carson Fulmer induces Standard Grounders at a 34.3% rate, which is 0.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.8% -0.6% 34%

Standard Grounder -6.0% -0.1% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.5% +1.9% 14%

Low Screamer +5.9% -1.2% 9%

Rising Liner +1.0% -2.0% 4%

Maybe Homer -1.2% -0.6% 3%

Likely Homer -1.4% +0.9% 1%

No Doubter -1.0% +0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout +4.0% +3.9% 3%

Pop up +2.0% -2.4%

15.9% of Miguel Vargas's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 8.4% lower than the league average. 24.9% of batted balls allowed by Carson Fulmer are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.6% -4.1% 21%

75 to 86 mph +9.9% +1.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph -0.3% -1.3% 19%

94 to 99 mph -1.9% +3.7% 24%

Above 100 mph -8.4% +0.6%

15.3% of Miguel Vargas's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 3.8% higher than the league average. 11.5% of batted balls allowed by Carson Fulmer are hit at this angle, which is 0.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.7% +1.0% 12%

-10 to 0° -5.9% -1.9% 8%

1 to 6° -0.1% +2.1% 18%

7 to 18° +1.4% -2.0% 15%

19 to 28° -0.8% +0.2% 11%

29 to 38° +3.8% +0.0% 7%

39 to 50° +3.6% +2.2% 8%

Above 50° +1.6% -1.6%

Miguel Vargas has 2 plate appearances against Carson Fulmer in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 2.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.24	0.00	0.02	0.22			0.122

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-09-26	Flyout				99%
2024-09-18	Sac Fly		2%	21%	77%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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