Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Bobby Witt Jr.

matchup for Aaron Nola

410th out of 436 (Worst 6%)

Aaron Nola

matchup for Bobby Witt Jr.

405th out of 567 (Worst 29%)

Strong advantage for Witt Jr.

Bobby Witt Jr. has a 31.2% chance of reaching base vs Aaron Nola, which is 2.5% lower than Witt Jr.'s typical expectations, and 1.7% higher than batters facing Nola.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.2%	26.0%	4.2%	8.0%	13.8%	5.2%	24.7%
Witt Jr.	-2.5	+0.1	+0.1	+1.9	-1.9	-2.6	+7.4
Nola	+1.7	+3.6	+1.2	+1.7	+0.7	-1.9	-6.2

Bobby Witt Jr. is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Aaron Nola is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Witt Jr. has an A+ grade vs this particular release point.

Aaron Nola throws a Kn-Curve 30% of the time. Bobby Witt Jr. hasn't faced this pitch from right handers very often

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Kn-Curve (R)

30%

4-Seam (R)

30%

Sinker (R)

20%

Changeup (R)

12%

Cutter (R)

8% of Aaron Nola's pitches are classified as Chasers, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Bobby Witt Jr. has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Chaser 8%

+2%

Edge Painter 19%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

+0%

Weak Challenge 8%

Likely Ball 19%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

26% of Aaron Nola's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 21% higher than the MLB average. Bobby Witt Jr. has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 26%

+21%

Extreme Slow Velo 23%

+18%

Large Break 22%

+18%

9.7% of Bobby Witt Jr.'s plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 8.3% lower than the league average. Aaron Nola strikes out 20.3% of the batters he faces, which is 6.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Strikeout -8.3% +6.3% 5%

Walk -1.0% -2.8% 36%

In Play +9.3% -3.5% 39%

On Base +4.3% -4.8% 31%

Hit +5.3% -2.0% 14%

Single +0.8% -0.8% 13%

2B / 3B +1.2% -0.7% 3%

Home Run +3.3% -0.5%

30.0% of Bobby Witt Jr.'s batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 4.4% lower than the league average. Aaron Nola induces Standard Grounders at a 37.3% rate, which is 2.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% 0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder -4.4% +2.9% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.1% -0.6% 14%

Low Screamer +0.9% -1.6% 9%

Rising Liner -1.6% +0.5% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.1% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer +0.9% +0.1% 1%

No Doubter +1.0% +0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.3% -0.4% 3%

Pop up +1.4% -0.7%

32.8% of Bobby Witt Jr.'s batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 8.5% higher than the league average. 23.6% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Nola are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.4% +0.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.9% -0.2% 18%

87 to 93 mph -0.7% +2.2% 19%

94 to 99 mph -3.4% -1.9% 24%

Above 100 mph +8.5% -0.7%

11.0% of Bobby Witt Jr.'s batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.4% lower than the league average. 10.9% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Nola are hit at this angle, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.2% -0.8% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.7% +1.8% 8%

1 to 6° -1.0% +0.2% 18%

7 to 18° -1.3% +0.8% 15%

19 to 28° +0.4% +0.1% 11%

29 to 38° -0.4% -0.6% 7%

39 to 50° +0.8% -0.2% 8%

Above 50° +3.4% -1.3%

Bobby Witt Jr. has 3 plate appearances against Aaron Nola in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 3 with a home run and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	2	1	0	1	1	0	0.667
Expected From Contact →			1.79	0.97	0.02	0.80			0.596

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-08-04	Single			80%	20%
2023-08-04	Home Run	97%	1%		2%
2023-08-04	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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