Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Alek Thomas

matchup for Brad Keller

out of 436 (Worst %)

Brad Keller

matchup for Alek Thomas

143rd out of 567 (Best 26%)

Moderate advantage for Thomas

Alek Thomas has a 33.1% chance of reaching base vs Brad Keller, which is 1.5% higher than Thomas's typical expectations, and 0.4% higher than batters facing Keller.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	33.1%	25.6%	2.4%	4.4%	18.8%	7.6%	16.0%
Thomas	+1.5	+1.1	+0.3	-0.2	+1.0	+0.4	-3.9
Keller	+0.4	+2.9	-0.6	-0.6	+4.0	-2.5	-3.8

Alek Thomas is better vs right-handed pitching. Brad Keller is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Thomas has an A- grade vs this particular release point.

Brad Keller throws a 4-seam fastball 36% of the time. Alek Thomas has a B grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

36%

Slider (R)

34%

Sinker (R)

16%

13% of Brad Keller's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Alek Thomas has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 13%

+4%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Non-Competitive 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

Fringe Miss 12%

Chaser 5%

-1%

Strong Challenge 3%

-2%

Mid Challenge 10%

-2%

Meatball 5%

-2%

39% of Brad Keller's pitches are classified as Low Ride, which is 16% higher than the MLB average. Alek Thomas has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Low Ride 39%

+16%

Small Break 25%

+14%

Medium Fast Velo 27%

+12%

12.1% of Alek Thomas's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 4.3% lower than the league average. Brad Keller strikes out 11.7% of the batters he faces, which is 5.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -4.3% -5.3% 5%

Walk -2.5% +0.7% 37%

In Play +6.7% +4.6% 39%

On Base -0.4% +4.5% 31%

Hit +2.1% +3.8% 14%

Single +1.0% +2.0% 13%

2B / 3B +1.3% +2.3% 3%

Home Run -0.1% -0.5%

45.2% of Alek Thomas's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 10.8% higher than the league average. Brad Keller induces Standard Grounders at a 42.2% rate, which is 7.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% +0.6% 34%

Standard Grounder +10.8% +7.8% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.9% +0.8% 14%

Low Screamer -1.3% -0.2% 9%

Rising Liner -0.2% -3.7% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.2% +0.6% 3%

Likely Homer -2.3% -1.0% 1%

No Doubter -1.2% +1.0% 20%

Routine Flyout -6.7% -4.3% 3%

Pop up -1.3% -1.6%

27.5% of Alek Thomas's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.2% higher than the league average. 25.4% of batted balls allowed by Brad Keller are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +4.3% +0.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.6% +1.8% 18%

87 to 93 mph -2.2% -2.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.6% -0.9% 24%

Above 100 mph +3.2% +1.1%

8.7% of Alek Thomas's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.7% lower than the league average. 9.4% of batted balls allowed by Brad Keller are hit at this angle, which is 2.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +11.7% +8.1% 12%

-10 to 0° +1.6% +0.7% 8%

1 to 6° +2.2% +0.4% 18%

7 to 18° -0.9% -3.9% 15%

19 to 28° -6.3% +0.5% 11%

29 to 38° -2.7% -2.0% 7%

39 to 50° -3.3% -1.1% 8%

Above 50° -2.3% -2.7%

Alek Thomas has 3 plate appearances against Brad Keller in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 3.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	0.333
Expected From Contact →			0.76	0.12	0.05	0.60			0.253

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2025-03-28	Single
2023-04-24	Groundout		2%	1%	97%
2023-04-24	Sac Fly	12%	3%		86%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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