Matchup Machine

Alek Thomas

Best 45% of matchups for Austin Gomber

Austin Gomber

Best 42% of matchups for Alek Thomas

Moderate advantage for Thomas

Model Prediction
Prediction	2.1%	4.5%	16.6%	6.7%	12.9%
MLB (+/-)	-0.8	+0.2	+2.7	-3.0	-12.3
Thomas	-0.0	-0.2	+0.9	-0.9	-7.6
Gomber	-1.2	+0.1	+0.4	-1.2	-3.4

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

2.1%

4.5%

16.6%

6.7%

12.9%

MLB (+/-)

-0.8

+0.2

+2.7

-3.0

-12.3

Thomas

-0.0

-0.2

+0.9

-0.9

-7.6

Gomber

-1.2

+0.1

+0.4

-1.2

-3.4

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	9	9	1	0	0	1	1	0	.111
Expected From Contact →			2.38	0.20	0.75	1.42			.264

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-08-16	Groundout			5%	95%
2023-08-16	Groundout			2%	97%
2023-04-30	Flyout	20%	21%		59%
2023-04-30	Strikeout
2022-09-09	Groundout		28%	9%	63%
2022-08-14	Groundout		2%	54%	44%
2022-08-14	Single		21%	65%	13%
2022-07-02	Groundout			4%	96%
2022-07-02	Groundout		2%	3%	95%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	56%	12	LHB vs LHP	22	20%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

56%

LHB vs LHP

20%

Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
51%	28	Fastball	16	45%
34%	29	Breaking	-26	37%
19%	33	Offspeed	0	18%
		------------------
52%	21	Four-Seam FB	-3	44%
56%	30	Slider	-6	20%
54%	34	Changeup	0	18%
36%	40	Knuckle-Curve	-94	17%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

51%

Fastball

45%

34%

Breaking

-26

37%

19%

Offspeed

18%

------------------

52%

Four-Seam FB

-3

44%

56%

Slider

-6

20%

54%

Changeup

18%

36%

Knuckle-Curve

-94

17%

	Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
	59%	13	Away / Glove Side	38	17%
	60%	19	Bottom of zone	13	13%
⭐	67%	60	Top of zone	-3	12%
	80%	61	Middle	45	7%
	77%	14	In / Arm Side	52	5%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

59%

Away / Glove Side

17%

60%

Bottom of zone

13%

⭐

67%

Top of zone

-3

12%

80%

Middle

77%

In / Arm Side

	Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
	39%	28	Away / Glove Side	41	34%
	44%	32	Below the zone	22	30%
⭐	43%	65	Above the zone	8	24%
	41%	32	In / Arm Side	19	10%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

39%

Away / Glove Side

34%

44%

Below the zone

30%

⭐

43%

Above the zone

24%

41%

In / Arm Side

10%

Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
32%	37	First Pitch	10	28%
63%	26	Batter Behind	0	28%
54%	19	Batter Ahead	4	26%
70%	33	2 Strikes	-23	26%
63%	16	3 Balls	2	8%
76%	30	Full Count	-9	4%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

32%

First Pitch

28%

63%

Batter Behind

28%

54%

Batter Ahead

26%

70%

2 Strikes

-23

26%

63%

3 Balls

76%

Full Count

-9