Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Seiya Suzuki

matchup for Aaron Civale

354th out of 436 (Worst 19%)

Aaron Civale

matchup for Seiya Suzuki

265th out of 567 (Best 48%)

Moderate advantage for Suzuki

Seiya Suzuki has a 32.6% chance of reaching base vs Aaron Civale, which is 0.9% lower than Suzuki's typical expectations, and 3.2% higher than batters facing Civale.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.6%	22.1%	3.5%	4.6%	14.0%	10.5%	26.1%
Suzuki	-0.9	+1.8	+0.8	-0.3	+1.3	-2.7	-3.1
Civale	+3.2	+0.7	+0.4	+0.3	0.0	+2.5	+4.7

Seiya Suzuki is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Aaron Civale is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Suzuki has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Aaron Civale throws a Cutter 32% of the time. Seiya Suzuki has an A- grade against right-handed Cutters

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Cutter (R)

32%

Sinker (R)

21%

Curve (R)

20%

4-Seam (R)

11%

Slider (R)

10%

21% of Aaron Civale's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Seiya Suzuki has a C- grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 21%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Strong Challenge 5%

Weak Challenge 8%

Meatball 6%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

20% of Aaron Civale's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 15% higher than the MLB average. Seiya Suzuki has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 20%

+15%

Medium Break 24%

+15%

Extreme Slow Velo 16%

+11%

Fastball (R) 64%

+10%

17.7% of Seiya Suzuki's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 5.2% higher than the league average. Aaron Civale strikes out 16.0% of the batters he faces, which is 0.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

12%

Strikeout +5.2% +0.4% 3%

Walk +3.5% -1.3% 43%

In Play -8.7% +1.0% 39%

On Base +3.8% -0.9% 31%

Hit +0.4% +0.5% 14%

Single -0.3% 0.0% 13%

2B / 3B -0.1% +0.3% 3%

Home Run +0.8% +0.1%

29.5% of Seiya Suzuki's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.0% lower than the league average. Aaron Civale induces Standard Grounders at a 34.5% rate, which is 0.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.2% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.0% +0.1% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.6% -0.7% 14%

Low Screamer +0.2% -1.3% 9%

Rising Liner +1.0% +1.8% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.9% -1.1% 3%

Likely Homer +0.7% +0.2% 1%

No Doubter +0.1% +0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.2% -0.7% 3%

Pop up +0.4% +1.8%

29.0% of Seiya Suzuki's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 4.7% higher than the league average. 25.0% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Civale are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.7% +0.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph -0.9% +1.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph -1.9% +0.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.9% -3.0% 24%

Above 100 mph +4.7% +0.7%

12.5% of Seiya Suzuki's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.1% higher than the league average. 11.7% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Civale are hit at this angle, which is 0.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -0.2% -0.8% 12%

-10 to 0° -1.6% -0.4% 8%

1 to 6° -1.3% +0.7% 18%

7 to 18° +1.1% -1.1% 15%

19 to 28° +2.6% +0.4% 11%

29 to 38° +1.1% +0.2% 7%

39 to 50° -1.5% -0.2% 8%

Above 50° -0.3% +1.2%

Seiya Suzuki has 6 plate appearances against Aaron Civale in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 6 with a home run and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	6	2	1	0	1	2	0	0.333
Expected From Contact →			2.35	0.72	0.11	1.52			0.392

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-06-12	Single		2%	82%	15%
2024-06-12	Home Run	72%	8%		20%
2024-06-12	Groundout			4%	95%
2023-07-02	Strikeout
2023-07-02	Strikeout
2023-07-02	Lineout			65%	34%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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