Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Yainer Diaz

matchup for Corbin Burnes

321st out of 436 (Worst 27%)

Corbin Burnes

matchup for Yainer Diaz

367th out of 567 (Worst 35%)

Leans in favor of Diaz

Yainer Diaz has a 30.8% chance of reaching base vs Corbin Burnes, which is 0.8% lower than Diaz's typical expectations, and 1.0% higher than batters facing Burnes.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.8%	25.8%	2.0%	4.5%	19.2%	5.0%	18.9%
Diaz	-0.8	-0.3	-0.4	-0.7	+0.9	-0.5	-2.3
Burnes	+1.0	+4.0	-0.4	+0.2	+4.1	-3.0	-4.3

Yainer Diaz is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Corbin Burnes is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Diaz has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Corbin Burnes throws a Cutter 52% of the time. Yainer Diaz hasn't faced this pitch from right handers very often

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Cutter (R)

52%

Curve (R)

19%

Slider (R)

10%

Changeup (R)

10%

Sinker (R)

24% of Corbin Burnes's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Yainer Diaz has a D- grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 24%

+4%

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Chaser 8%

+2%

Fringe Miss 14%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

-1%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-3%

Meatball 2%

-4%

47% of Corbin Burnes's pitches are classified as Low Ride, which is 23% higher than the MLB average. Yainer Diaz has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Low Ride 47%

+23%

Fast Velo 36%

+21%

Small Break 31%

+20%

11.6% of Yainer Diaz's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 5.1% lower than the league average. Corbin Burnes strikes out 17.4% of the batters he faces, which is 3.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -5.1% +3.2% 6%

Walk -4.1% -1.6% 36%

In Play +9.2% -1.6% 39%

On Base +9.2% -3.4% 31%

Hit +13.3% -1.8% 14%

Single +6.3% -0.7% 13%

2B / 3B +6.7% -0.2% 3%

Home Run +0.2% -0.8%

38.3% of Yainer Diaz's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.9% higher than the league average. Corbin Burnes induces Standard Grounders at a 40.0% rate, which is 5.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder +3.9% +5.5% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.6% +0.9% 14%

Low Screamer -1.0% -1.1% 9%

Rising Liner -0.6% -1.1% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.8% -1.4% 3%

Likely Homer -1.3% -0.1% 1%

No Doubter +1.3% +0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout -3.3% -2.7% 3%

Pop up -1.1% 0.0%

27.9% of Yainer Diaz's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.6% higher than the league average. 23.7% of batted balls allowed by Corbin Burnes are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.0% +2.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.7% +0.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph -1.0% +2.9% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.1% -4.7% 24%

Above 100 mph +3.6% -0.6%

10.2% of Yainer Diaz's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.3% lower than the league average. 10.1% of batted balls allowed by Corbin Burnes are hit at this angle, which is 1.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +1.5% +2.4% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.1% +0.9% 8%

1 to 6° +1.4% +2.4% 18%

7 to 18° +4.0% -1.5% 15%

19 to 28° -1.5% -4.1% 11%

29 to 38° -1.3% -1.3% 7%

39 to 50° -2.9% -0.9% 8%

Above 50° -1.1% +2.2%

Yainer Diaz has 6 plate appearances against Corbin Burnes in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 6 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	6	2	0	1	1	0	0	0.333
Expected From Contact →			2.24	0.06	0.64	1.54			0.373

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-22	Groundout			18%	82%
2024-08-22	Forceout			29%	71%
2024-08-22	Single		1%	89%	10%
2024-06-22	Triple	6%	62%	6%	26%
2024-06-22	Groundout			11%	89%
2024-06-22	Flyout				99%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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