Matchup Machine

Maikel Garcia

Worst 12% of matchups for Logan Allen

Logan Allen

Best 28% of matchups for Maikel Garcia

Strong advantage for Garcia

Model Prediction
Prediction	1.9%	4.0%	18.5%	9.8%	13.2%
MLB (+/-)	-0.9	-0.2	+4.6	+0.1	-12.0
Garcia	+0.0	-0.2	+1.1	+0.2	-3.9
Allen	-1.0	+0.1	+3.6	-0.3	-8.0

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

1.9%

4.0%

18.5%

9.8%

13.2%

MLB (+/-)

-0.9

-0.2

+4.6

+0.1

-12.0

Garcia

+0.0

-0.2

+1.1

+0.2

-3.9

Allen

-1.0

+0.1

+3.6

-0.3

-8.0

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	8	8	3	1	0	2	1	0	.375
Expected From Contact →			2.16	0.16	0.60	1.40			.270

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Single			33%	66%
2023-09-19	Single			10%	90%
2023-07-24	Groundout		5%	5%	90%
2023-07-24	Home Run	16%	54%	9%	21%
2023-07-24	Groundout			9%	90%
2023-07-24	Pop Out				100%
2023-06-28	Groundout			73%	27%
2023-06-28	Strikeout

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	44%	64	RHB vs LHP	67	83%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

44%

RHB vs LHP

83%

Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
45%	38	Fastball	78	54%
24%	50	Breaking	41	24%
7%	77	Offspeed	57	22%
		------------------
45%	22	Four-Seam FB	59	45%
44%	40	Slider	43	24%
52%	88	Changeup	55	20%
53%	69	Cutter	69	9%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

45%

Fastball

54%

24%

Breaking

24%

Offspeed

22%

------------------

45%

Four-Seam FB

45%

44%

Slider

24%

52%

Changeup

20%

53%

Cutter

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
68%	32	Bottom of zone	61	13%
62%	43	Away / Arm Side	98	13%	⭐
69%	24	Top of zone	85	12%	⭐⭐
56%	43	In / Glove Side	67	8%
67%	62	Middle	40	5%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

68%

Bottom of zone

13%

62%

Away / Arm Side

13%

⭐

69%

Top of zone

12%

⭐⭐

56%

In / Glove Side

67%

Middle

	Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
	31%	34	Below the zone	52	34%
⭐⭐	21%	97	Away / Arm Side	23	28%
	32%	53	In / Glove Side	85	23%
	29%	58	Above the zone	59	23%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

31%

Below the zone

34%

⭐⭐

21%

Away / Arm Side

28%

32%

In / Glove Side

23%

29%

Above the zone

23%

Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
56%	41	2 Strikes	55	30%
46%	17	Batter Behind	59	29%
50%	57	Batter Ahead	73	27%
32%	86	First Pitch	73	25%
56%	52	3 Balls	66	8%
66%	45	Full Count	57	5%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

56%

2 Strikes

30%

46%

Batter Behind

29%

50%

Batter Ahead

27%

32%

First Pitch

25%

56%

3 Balls

66%

Full Count