Matchup Machine

Jordan Diaz

Best 49% of matchups for Luis Castillo

Luis Castillo

Worst 25% of matchups for Jordan Diaz

Moderate advantage for Castillo

- 4

Model Prediction
Prediction	3.2%	4.4%	13.4%	5.2%	28.5%
MLB (+/-)	+0.4	+0.2	-0.5	-4.5	+3.3
Diaz	+0.4	+0.5	-1.7	-1.2	+3.3
Castillo	+0.3	-0.5	+1.0	-3.1	+1.4

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

3.2%

4.4%

13.4%

5.2%

28.5%

MLB (+/-)

+0.4

+0.2

-0.5

-4.5

+3.3

Diaz

+0.4

+0.5

-1.7

-1.2

+3.3

Castillo

+0.3

-0.5

+1.0

-3.1

+1.4

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	.250
Expected From Contact →			1.53	0.00	0.61	0.92			.383

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2022-10-01	Single		56%	42%	2%
2022-10-01	Groundout		1%	42%	56%
2022-09-20	Groundout		4%	4%	92%
2022-09-20	Forceout			4%	96%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	60%	33	RHB vs RHP	94	46%	⭐⭐

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

60%

RHB vs RHP

46%

⭐⭐

Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
53%	25	Fastball	98	62%	⭐⭐
40%	36	Breaking	77	22%	⭐
22%	35	Offspeed	93	16%	⭐
		------------------
55%	47	Four-Seam FB	96	44%	⭐
68%	37	Slider	106	22%	⭐⭐
46%	9	Sinker	81	18%	⭐⭐
71%	23	Changeup	91	16%	⭐⭐

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

53%

Fastball

62%

⭐⭐

40%

Breaking

22%

⭐

22%

Offspeed

16%

⭐

------------------

55%

Four-Seam FB

44%

⭐

68%

Slider

106

22%

⭐⭐

46%

Sinker

18%

⭐⭐

71%

Changeup

16%

⭐⭐

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
81%	19	Bottom of zone	75	12%	⭐
83%	48	Top of zone	108	12%	⭐
78%	54	Away / Glove Side	110	11%	⭐
66%	25	In / Arm Side	56	10%
67%	41	Middle	56	6%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

81%

Bottom of zone

12%

⭐

83%

Top of zone

108

12%

⭐

78%

Away / Glove Side

110

11%

⭐

66%

In / Arm Side

10%

67%

Middle

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
54%	16	Away / Glove Side	66	36%	⭐
54%	-6	Below the zone	98	32%	⭐⭐
44%	47	Above the zone	111	25%	⭐⭐
37%	28	In / Arm Side	79	17%	⭐

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

54%

Away / Glove Side

36%

⭐

54%

-6

Below the zone

32%

⭐⭐

44%

Above the zone

111

25%

⭐⭐

37%

In / Arm Side

17%

⭐

Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
68%	44	2 Strikes	101	32%	⭐
66%	45	Batter Behind	96	31%	⭐
44%	23	First Pitch	79	25%	⭐
63%	40	Batter Ahead	108	25%	⭐⭐
61%	52	3 Balls	90	8%
71%	55	Full Count	67	6%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

68%

2 Strikes

101

32%

⭐

66%

Batter Behind

31%

⭐

44%

First Pitch

25%

⭐

63%

Batter Ahead

108

25%

⭐⭐

61%

3 Balls

71%

Full Count