Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Alejandro Kirk

matchup for Corbin Burnes

403rd out of 436 (Worst 8%)

Corbin Burnes

matchup for Alejandro Kirk

505th out of 567 (Worst 11%)

Moderate advantage for Kirk

Alejandro Kirk has a 32.5% chance of reaching base vs Corbin Burnes, which is 3.0% lower than Kirk's typical expectations, and 2.7% higher than batters facing Burnes.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.5%	26.0%	1.8%	4.9%	19.3%	6.5%	14.3%
Kirk	-3.0	-0.9	-0.7	-0.8	+0.6	-2.1	0.0
Burnes	+2.7	+4.2	-0.6	+0.5	+4.2	-1.4	-8.8

Alejandro Kirk is slightly better vs right-handed pitching. Corbin Burnes is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Kirk has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Corbin Burnes throws a Cutter 52% of the time. Alejandro Kirk has a B+ grade against right-handed Cutters

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Cutter (R)

52%

Curve (R)

19%

Slider (R)

10%

Changeup (R)

10%

Sinker (R)

24% of Corbin Burnes's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Alejandro Kirk has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 24%

+4%

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Chaser 8%

+2%

Fringe Miss 14%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

-1%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-3%

Meatball 2%

-4%

47% of Corbin Burnes's pitches are classified as Low Ride, which is 23% higher than the MLB average. Alejandro Kirk has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Low Ride 47%

+23%

Fast Velo 36%

+21%

Small Break 31%

+20%

7.8% of Alejandro Kirk's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 11.5% lower than the league average. Corbin Burnes strikes out 17.4% of the batters he faces, which is 3.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

19%

Strikeout -11.5% +3.2% 4%

Walk +1.0% -1.6% 35%

In Play +10.5% -1.6% 39%

On Base +5.4% -3.4% 31%

Hit +4.4% -1.8% 14%

Single +2.3% -0.7% 13%

2B / 3B +2.7% -0.2% 3%

Home Run -0.6% -0.8%

35.9% of Alejandro Kirk's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.5% higher than the league average. Corbin Burnes induces Standard Grounders at a 40.0% rate, which is 5.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder +1.5% +5.5% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.4% +0.9% 14%

Low Screamer -1.8% -1.1% 9%

Rising Liner -0.5% -1.1% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.0% -1.4% 3%

Likely Homer -0.2% -0.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.8% +0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.2% -2.7% 3%

Pop up +1.8% 0.0%

27.4% of Alejandro Kirk's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.1% higher than the league average. 23.7% of batted balls allowed by Corbin Burnes are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.5% +2.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.1% +0.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph -1.5% +2.9% 19%

94 to 99 mph -0.1% -4.7% 24%

Above 100 mph +3.1% -0.6%

10.0% of Alejandro Kirk's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.4% lower than the league average. 10.1% of batted balls allowed by Corbin Burnes are hit at this angle, which is 1.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +0.3% +2.4% 12%

-10 to 0° +2.7% +0.9% 8%

1 to 6° +0.3% +2.4% 18%

7 to 18° -1.3% -1.5% 15%

19 to 28° -2.2% -4.1% 11%

29 to 38° -1.4% -1.3% 7%

39 to 50° -0.8% -0.9% 8%

Above 50° +2.6% +2.2%

Alejandro Kirk has 9 plate appearances against Corbin Burnes in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 7 with 2 walks

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	9	7	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.45	0.00	0.02	0.43			0.065

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-07-30	Hit By Pitch
2024-07-30	Groundout			9%	91%
2024-07-30	Sac Fly				98%
2024-05-13	Flyout				99%
2024-05-13	GIDP			13%	86%
2024-05-13	Strikeout
2022-06-25	Walk
2022-06-25	Groundout			20%	80%
2022-06-25	Walk

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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