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Alejandro Kirk

matchup for Zach Eflin

404th out of 436 (Worst 8%)

Zach Eflin

matchup for Alejandro Kirk

406th out of 567 (Worst 29%)

Strong advantage for Kirk

Alejandro Kirk has a 33.7% chance of reaching base vs Zach Eflin, which is 2.6% lower than Kirk's typical expectations, and 2.6% higher than batters facing Eflin.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	33.7%	27.1%	2.8%	5.6%	18.7%	6.6%	11.4%
Kirk	-2.6	+0.6	+0.1	+0.0	+0.4	-3.2	-2.4
Eflin	+2.6	+2.7	-0.2	-0.2	+3.1	-0.1	-9.5

Alejandro Kirk is slightly better vs right-handed pitching. Zach Eflin is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Kirk has a B+ grade vs this particular release point.

Zach Eflin throws a Sinker 33% of the time. Alejandro Kirk has an A grade against right-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (R)

33%

Curve (R)

19%

Cutter (R)

16%

Slider (R)

13%

4-Seam (R)

10%

Changeup (R)

12% of Zach Eflin's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Alejandro Kirk has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 12%

+4%

Edge Painter 19%

+2%

Fringe Miss 14%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Meatball 6%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

35% of Zach Eflin's pitches are classified as Extreme Break Toward Third Base, which is 20% higher than the MLB average. Alejandro Kirk has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Break 35%

+20%

Just Gravity 31%

+17%

Extreme Slow Velo 17%

+12%

7.4% of Alejandro Kirk's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 12.0% lower than the league average. Zach Eflin strikes out 15.6% of the batters he faces, which is 0.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

19%

Strikeout -12.0% -0.2% 4%

Walk +1.2% -4.0% 35%

In Play +10.8% +4.1% 39%

On Base +6.5% -3.8% 31%

Hit +5.3% +0.2% 14%

Single +2.9% +0.0% 13%

2B / 3B +3.0% 0.0% 3%

Home Run -0.6% +0.1%

36.1% of Alejandro Kirk's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.7% higher than the league average. Zach Eflin induces Standard Grounders at a 36.1% rate, which is 1.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% +0.5% 34%

Standard Grounder +1.7% +1.7% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.4% -0.5% 14%

Low Screamer -1.7% -0.1% 9%

Rising Liner -0.8% -0.8% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.2% -0.2% 3%

Likely Homer -0.2% -1.2% 1%

No Doubter -0.8% +0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.2% -0.1% 3%

Pop up +1.7% +0.2%

27.4% of Alejandro Kirk's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.2% higher than the league average. 25.5% of batted balls allowed by Zach Eflin are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.4% +1.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.0% -0.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph -1.4% +0.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph -0.2% -3.2% 24%

Above 100 mph +3.2% +1.2%

9.9% of Alejandro Kirk's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.5% lower than the league average. 10.4% of batted balls allowed by Zach Eflin are hit at this angle, which is 1.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +0.3% +1.5% 12%

-10 to 0° +2.7% +0.6% 8%

1 to 6° +0.5% -0.3% 18%

7 to 18° -1.6% -1.4% 15%

19 to 28° -2.0% -0.7% 11%

29 to 38° -1.5% -1.1% 7%

39 to 50° -0.6% +1.6% 8%

Above 50° +2.4% -0.4%

Alejandro Kirk has 14 plate appearances against Zach Eflin in the last 3 years. He is 6 for 14 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	14	14	6	0	0	6	1	0	0.429
Expected From Contact →			4.27	0.00	0.32	3.95			0.305

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2025-03-27	Groundout
2025-03-27	Groundout
2024-07-29	Single		4%	81%	16%
2024-07-29	Single			40%	60%
2024-07-29	Single			43%	57%
2024-07-24	Groundout			19%	81%
2024-07-24	Groundout			3%	97%
2024-03-28	Groundout			44%	56%
2024-03-28	Single		2%	79%	18%
2024-03-28	Strikeout
2023-05-25	Lineout		25%	4%	71%
2023-05-25	Single			36%	64%
2023-05-25	Single			40%	60%
2022-09-20	Groundout			6%	94%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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