matchup for John Means
matchup for Gabriel Arias
4
Gabriel Arias has a 28.1% chance of reaching base vs John Means, which is 0.4% higher than Arias's typical expectations, and 2.9% lower than batters facing Means.
| Reach | Hit | HR | 2B / 3B | 1B | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | 28.1% | 22.2% | 2.6% | 6.3% | 13.4% | 5.9% | 34.4% |
| Arias | +0.4 | +1.4 | +0.1 | +1.3 | 0.0 | -1.0 | -0.2 |
| Means | -2.9 | -1.8 | -0.8 | -0.3 | -0.7 | -1.1 | +13.5 |
Gabriel Arias is much worse vs left-handed pitching. John Means is left handed with an over-the-top delivery. Arias has a C grade vs this particular release point.
John Means throws a 4-seam fastball 49% of the time. Gabriel Arias has an F grade against left-handed 4-seamers
Pitch Type
% of Arsenal
4-Seam (L)
49%
Changeup (L)
28%
Slider (L)
12%
Curve (L)
11%
9% of John Means's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Gabriel Arias hasn't faced this type of pitch very often.
Pitch Label
% vs MLB
Meatball
9%
+4%
Likely Ball
21%
+1%
Edge Painter
18%
+1%
Strong Challenge
6%
+1%
Mid Challenge
12%
+1%
Chaser
6%
+1%
Fringe Miss
13%
+0%
Non-Competitive
11%
-2%
Weak Challenge
3%
-6%
31% of John Means's pitches are classified as Extreme Ride, which is 27% higher than the MLB average. Gabriel Arias hasn't faced this type of pitch enough to assign a grade.
Physical Trait
% vs MLB
Extreme Ride
31%
+27%
Medium Break
40%
+21%
Offspeed (L)
28%
+15%
Medium Fast Velo
24%
+9%
19.7% of Gabriel Arias's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 8.5% higher than the league average. John Means strikes out 14.7% of the batters he faces, which is 0.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.
11%
Strikeout
+8.5%
-0.2%
5%
Walk
-2.3%
-2.7%
42%
In Play
-6.2%
+2.9%
39%
On Base
-4.0%
-4.8%
31%
Hit
-1.6%
-2.1%
14%
Single
-1.3%
-1.5%
13%
2B / 3B
-0.8%
-1.1%
3%
Home Run
+0.5%
+0.5%
42.6% of Gabriel Arias's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 8.2% higher than the league average. John Means induces Standard Grounders at a 23.3% rate, which is 11.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.
0%
Squib/Bunt
+2.3%
-0.1%
34%
Standard Grounder
+8.2%
-11.1%
7%
Hard Grounder
-0.6%
-1.7%
14%
Low Screamer
-6.6%
+0.6%
9%
Rising Liner
+1.9%
+0.6%
4%
Maybe Homer
-4.1%
+0.6%
3%
Likely Homer
-0.2%
0.0%
1%
No Doubter
-1.2%
+0.5%
20%
Routine Flyout
-0.7%
+5.9%
3%
Pop up
+0.9%
+4.8%
23.5% of Gabriel Arias's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 0.8% lower than the league average. 26.9% of batted balls allowed by John Means are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Below 75 mph
+5.5%
-0.6%
21%
75 to 86 mph
-1.2%
+1.0%
18%
87 to 93 mph
-3.5%
-3.5%
19%
94 to 99 mph
+0.0%
+0.3%
24%
Above 100 mph
-0.8%
+2.6%
9.9% of Gabriel Arias's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.5% lower than the league average. 12.5% of batted balls allowed by John Means are hit at this angle, which is 1.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.
17%
Below -10°
+11.1%
-7.7%
12%
-10 to 0°
+6.5%
-4.8%
8%
1 to 6°
-5.7%
+0.2%
18%
7 to 18°
-3.3%
-0.2%
15%
19 to 28°
-5.4%
+1.2%
11%
29 to 38°
-1.5%
+1.0%
7%
39 to 50°
-5.0%
+1.8%
8%
Above 50°
+3.4%
+8.5%
Gabriel Arias has 2 plate appearances against John Means in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 2 with a strikeout.
| PA | AB | H | HR | 2/3B | 1B | K | BB | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Expected From Contact → | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000 | ||||
| Expected From Contact | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Outcome | HR | 2/3B | 1B | Out |
| 2023-09-23 | Hit By Pitch | ||||
| 2023-09-23 | Strikeout | ||||
Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.
